The Probability of Recession: A Critique of a New Forecasting Technique
We evaluate a new recession probability model that depends on economic and market inputs. The model tends to predict economic downturns but not equity declines.
Noah Weisberger is a Managing Director in PGIM’s Institutional Advisory & Solutions (IAS) group, joining after 17 years on the sell-side of the industry. Most recently, Noah was a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Portfolio Strategist at Sanford Bernstein, where he and his team were responsible for conducting tactical and strategic equity-market research, market forecasting, and the management of a model portfolio. Prior to joining Sanford Bernstein, Noah spent 14 years at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as a Managing Director and Senior Market Economist, focusing on the intersection of macroeconomics and markets, across geographies and asset classes. Noah began his career as a Staff Macroeconomist at the Council of Economic Advisers. He received a BA in Mathematics from Yeshiva University and a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.