What to Expect When Expecting a Recession: A CIO’s guide to interpreting the probability of recession
A guide for CIOs to help them assess and interpret recession probability models, and explore several related issues that they should consider.
Evaluate US recession probability estimates and model assumptions to better understand what is driving the probability of recession.
Explore the ongoing evolution of developed market (DM) stock-bond correlations, their macroeconomic drivers, and how correlation impacts optimal portfolio construction.
Present asset-level exposures to key macroeconomic and market measures, allowing investors to evaluate their real assets allocation - both to the asset class itself and to specific assets within the asset class.
Explore the key features of the Recession Probability Evaluation Module, Stock-Bond Correlation Module and RASA Sensitivity Module to better aid portfolio construction. Request access below or explore the modules above to learn more.
A guide for CIOs to help them assess and interpret recession probability models, and explore several related issues that they should consider.
While simultaneous large declines in stock and bond prices are likely temporary, a positive stock-bond correlation regime may persist.
Stock-bond correlations are highly synchronized. A shift to positive correlation, driven by US policy settings, would likely be widespread.
Request Access
By submitting this form, you agree to receive communications from PGIM. Please read our privacy policy here.