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&gt;&gt; You're listening to All the Credit,
a monthly podcast series brought to you

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by PGIM Fixed Income, an active,
global, fixed income investment manager.

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&gt;&gt; Welcome to the podcast, I'm Brian
Barnhurst, Global Head of Credit Research.

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Today's episode is the second in a series that
will examine the evolution of credit markets.

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I'm very fortunate to be joined by Multi-Sector
Portfolio Manager, Tom McCartan, who focuses on,

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and as in expert in, liability-driven
strategies.

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&gt;&gt; Thanks Brian, glad to be here.

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&gt;&gt; A lesser discussed byproduct of the regime
shift in interest rates from the ultra-low rates

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of the post-GFC era to today is
considerably improved funded status

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for defined benefit pension plans.

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The impacts are twofold, higher discount
rates shrinking the liability side,

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and then higher nominal yields bolstering
opportunities on the asset side.

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As recently as three years ago, the hundred
largest U.S. defined benefit plans were

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collectively underfunded, today that funding
ratio on average stands north of 100%.

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The paradigm shift in interest rates
create a massive opportunity for sponsors

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to explore strategies to de-risk, even
fully immunize their plan cash flows.

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Tom, help us make sense of the defined
benefit landscape as it stands today.

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&gt;&gt; I think that's a really good
framing, Brian, of the overall backdrop,

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and maybe I'll just kind of add a
little bit more context in terms

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of where the corporate defined
benefit plans are today.

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Clearly it's a spectrum of the
circumstances that they find themselves in,

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but just for the simplicity, I think we
can try and define three different larger,

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broader groupings of where
the pension plans are at.

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As you said, their funded
status is markedly improved.

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By and large they have mostly closed and frozen,

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and most of these old-style final salary
pensions are now really not being offered

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by most corporations.

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And so, as broad groupings, you
can really divide it into three,

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the first set of plan sponsors are really
thinking about getting out of the pension game.

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Their pensions [inaudible],
let's try and transfer

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and move the liabilities over to insurers.

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So, they're really trying to exit the pension
game, and then take the volatility and are risk

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from their balance sheets and move
it over into the insurance world.

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So, they're either doing that piecemeal
through sequential set of transactions,

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parsing out the liability into
different tranches and selling those off,

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or they are doing it in a whole scale
termination, but ultimately for most

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of that grouping that's saying
pensions [inaudible],

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that kind of termination is the
end goal for a lot of those.

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The second broad grouping of plan
sponsors is, those plan sponsors

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that also want the de-risking benefits
on their balance sheets of the pension

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to take away the volatility on the
balance sheets, take away the uncertainty

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around contributions, and impacts
on their earnings, et cetera.

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But they're happy to keep the liability on
balance sheets and run it down over time

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and pay the liabilities over time.

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But they want to do so in a very
de-risked style asset allocation,

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which is going to clearly
be very fixed income heavy.

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So they're really kind of focusing on managing
down and reducing their surplus volatility.

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And then the third, maybe the most
heterogeneous grouping, it's going to have a lot

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of different plan sponsors with different
circumstances, but they're more thinking

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about maybe earning more return, growing their
surplus, growing their level of assets relative

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to the liabilities, either because the plan
is still open and accepting new members,

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or it could be closed, but they're
still accruing new service accrual

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for existing participants.

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Or they have a cash balance liability
that could be still accruing.

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Or they're in deficit and they
still need to grow their assets

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and they don't necessarily want to close
the funding gap with contributions.

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Or even, as we've seen in some kind of recent,
more public examples of large sponsors,

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they have a lot of surplus but they want
to try and use that surplus for other means

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within the plan and for providing
other benefits for participants.

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So, clearly it's a spectrum, but those
are kind of the three broad groupings.

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&gt;&gt; And as you think through different plan types
and potentially different desired outcomes,

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help us parse through sort of the waterfall
of navigating available de-risking strategies

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and how you think about, from the
plan standpoint, timing, execution,

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and the considerations around these factors.

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&gt;&gt; Yeah, if we focus in on those
three different groups and then think

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about what they're all doing differently,
the first group is very focused

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on this insurance solution, so naturally
what they're going to try and do

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and what they are trying to do, is
move their asset allocation close

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to a portfolio that's going to be desirable
from an insurance company standpoint.

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That an insurance company would like to receive
as part of a transaction, and therefore not have

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to go out into the markets and
create transaction costs to move

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to a portfolio that they would want.

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And this is going to enhance
or improve the premium

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that the plan sponsor will
get from the insurance market.

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So they're really trying to push their asset
allocation close to what insurers want.

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That's not one generic asset allocation

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because all insurers have different
preferences around which assets they prefer.

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But generically it's like create a portfolio
that's a little bit more insurance friendly,

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or insurance attractive.

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The second grouping, that grouping that's going
to hold the liability on balance sheet but try

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and really reduce the funded status
volatility, is necessarily going

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to have a very fixed income
heavy asset allocation.

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The liabilities are all valued with
double-A bond yields, and so they're going

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to be building a big portfolio of bonds
that's going to try and hedge as closely

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as possible, the risk of the liability.

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And then the approaches within
that are going to be varied.

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Some or going to very strictly
hedge the accounting liability,

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which is all double-A corporate bonds,
and then some or going to take a bit more

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of a broader approach and look for a portfolio
that's got a kind of broader array of sectors

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across the fixed income and credit markets
included within that asset allocation,

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thereby taking a little bit more risk
to the accounting liability in order

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to have a little bit more attractive portfolio.

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And then the third group, again,
mentioning that just with the precursor

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that it's a little bit more of a heterogeneous
group, dependent on where they are in terms

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of funded status, are they very underfunded?

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Are they very overfunded?

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There's going to be a whole array of different
approaches within that bucket that's going

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to include growth assets and other
assets that can be outside of bonds.

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But they're still likely going
to be trying to reduce a lot

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of their less well-compensated liability risk.

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So hedging as much of their
interest rate risk as possible.

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And a lot of the principles around trying to
optimize or improve the risk adjusted return

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of their overall portfolio is
going to apply for that group.

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&gt;&gt; Super helpful, and then I want
to talk about asset allocation,

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but before we get there I'm curious, with the
change in interest rate backdrop when we talked

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about the impacts on both liability and the
asset side, is there a groundswell of activity

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in the LDI space, where we
in sort of the cadence

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of attention on potentially de-risking plans?

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&gt;&gt; I think it's a great point, because
there's clearly a lot of activity

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within plans we mentioned in those three groups,

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but then we should also mention two other
groupings of different types of pension plans

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where there is also a kind of
building level of activity as well.

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The first is the multi-employer,
or Taft-Hartley plans,

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whereby through the American Rescue Plan
Act, there was pretty sizeable contribution

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into those plans to help them improve their
funding, which really picked up the funded level

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of a lot of those plans, but
there were certain conditions

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around how they could invest those assets, which
were a lot more akin to certain LDI principles

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of being focused on fixed income, and focused
on the duration of their liabilities in terms

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of how they invested those assets.

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&gt;&gt; You're referring to, I think, an
$80 billion cash injection tucked

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into the American Rescue
Act during the COVID era.

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&gt;&gt; That's correct.

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That's correct, and it really
changed the paradigm

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for those plans whereby Taft-Hartley
plans and public plans really hadn't been

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in an LDI paradigm for a long period
of time, because of differences

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in how they account for their liabilities.

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They don't use interest rates
to value their liabilities,

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they use an expected return on assets.

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So as interest rates fluctuate, it doesn't
change the value of their liabilities,

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so they didn't feel it necessary to try and
hedge that risk by buying long-duration bonds.

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But the American Rescue Plan Act contributions
that you refer to had some strings attached.

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And some of those strings were to invest
with more LDI principles, more bonds,

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more liability matching for those extra funds
that were put in to get them better funded,

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and so the strings attached
were to try and make sure

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that they don't get underfunded
again in the future.

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Likewise on the public plan space,
another set of pension plans that,

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because of the accounting, haven't
had the incentive to do LDI,

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but there are changes afoot, and there is
transition happening in public plans now,

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where certain states are moving
more towards a 401k or DC model,

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trying to get new employees auto-enrolled into
more self-discretionary 401k-style pensions.

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Which then necessarily makes the old style
DB pensions more of a legacy pension.

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And much, much further down the line, those type
of states could go through the same transition

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that corporation DB has gone through, whereby
those final salary pensions become more

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of a legacy style balance sheet item.

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And because of that legacy nature pushes
them to do more de-risking and try

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and reduce the volatility associated with those
liabilities by better matching the liabilities.

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&gt;&gt; What's really interesting to me is at the
same time as we've had this paradigm shift

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in plan funded status to position, let's
say the industry for lack of a better work,

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to think about de-risking strategy,
or to be in a better position

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to explore de-risking strategies, it's coincided
with an evolution of investment approach

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on the asset management side, which
I think is really interesting.

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So you have sort of a lot of forces converging.

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Once plan sponsors make a decision to pursue LDI
strategies, help us think through the evolution

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in solutioning for those strategies and then
obviously we want to talk about our approach.

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&gt;&gt; Yeah, and it all starts from
where you began the podcast,

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which is that yields are
higher now, a lot more so,

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that's improved funded levels
for a lot of different plans.

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But it's also for plans that have
kind of fixed levels of target return,

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like 7 or 8% return bogey, it's brought
bonds much closer to those levels

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and allowed more plans to think about higher
allocations to fixed income within those.

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Within the corporate defined benefit plan
space, I think there's two schools of thought

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of how you try and go about
building a de-risking solution.

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There is a more traditional approach where
you really do stick to try and buy the bonds

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that the liabilities are discounted with,
so that's really double-A long-dated bonds.

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And then there's another school

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of thought whereby you can get a
little bit better relative value

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by diversifying the portfolio a little
bit outside of that single sector.

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&gt;&gt; I feel like for a very long period
of time, basically the home asset class

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for LDI was high quality corporates, and I
think we're both on the same page that long,

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high-quality corporates are
arguably structurally rich,

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and non-dynamic from a portfolio
construction standpoint.

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And maybe that's a great segue into
your core role on the team you sit on,

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the Multi-Sector Portfolio Management Team,
which I think is sort of a good moniker

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for thinking about our portfolio
construction approach

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and solutioning approach to LDI strategies.

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&gt;&gt; Yeah, and it may have even been that
that accounting approach that dictated

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to all pension plans, from the '80s onwards,
that they had to value their liabilities

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with these bonds that created a huge amount of
trillions of dollars in effect of captive demand

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that were effectively required to buy
these bonds in order to hedge them.

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A little bit of that structural
richness that you refer to.

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But we do think that it then
creates an opportunity for plans

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to take a little bit more risk, a little bit
more tracking error to that accounting liability

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by including some credit sectors that are not
necessarily those long, high-quality bonds

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within the overall portfolio construction,
whether this is corporate bonds

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of different qualities and maturities,
whether it is below investment grade bonds,

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securitized credit, or credit derivatives,
there is relatively good relative value

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for including some of those sectors if the
portfolio construction is thoughtful enough

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of how to manage the different risks.

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Some of them can be relatively attractive
versus those long, double-A bonds.

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&gt;&gt; The legacy portfolio construct
is really focused on corporates.

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We've been really thoughtful about
bringing structured product into the fold.

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How do you think about incorporating structured
products, a little shorter in duration,

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typically floating rate,
into the asset allocation

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when you're building LDI
solutions alongside corporates?

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&gt;&gt; In general we like the asset
class in securitized credit.

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And for the asset allocation framework
that I outlined, where you can think

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about diversifying outside of long-dated
corporates, it is one of the asset classes

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that we include within that framework
and we do tend to have allocations to it.

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Certainly in today's market environment, with
higher levels of spreads, flatter spread curves,

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asset classes which give you more risk remote,
higher levels of carry that are sitting

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on the front end of the spread
curves, seem attractive to us.

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Some of the things you have to think about with
the asset class is a lot of it is floating rate.

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That's going to necessitate using interest rate
derivatives to hedge back to the longer duration

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of the liability, so liquidity is key.

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Can you sell some of those assets to generate
collateral for your collateral needs?

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Are there other securities in the portfolio
that you can use for collateral purposes?

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So you're going to keep some
Treasuries or cash in there?

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But by and large, we do like the risk
remote carry relative to corporate bonds.

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&gt;&gt; And then relatedly, we
recently did an episode on ABF.

00:13:52.346 --> 00:13:57.196 align:middle
Sort of the topic dujour in markets right
now, although maybe being overshadowed,

00:13:57.196 --> 00:14:01.146 align:middle
hopefully for the short-time by tariffs,
but how do you think about incorporation

00:14:01.146 --> 00:14:04.386 align:middle
of private assets into LDI strategies.

00:14:04.386 --> 00:14:07.366 align:middle
I know there's a myriad of considerations,
but would be interested in your perspective.

00:14:08.146 --> 00:14:12.446 align:middle
&gt;&gt; Yeah, I think the same comments that
I made about including securitized assets

00:14:12.446 --> 00:14:15.806 align:middle
within that multi-sector LDI framework apply.

00:14:15.916 --> 00:14:20.206 align:middle
But just with the additional caveat of
now you're further sacrificing liquidity.

00:14:20.616 --> 00:14:25.186 align:middle
For the sacrifice I think you need that
additional compensation of spread for some

00:14:25.186 --> 00:14:27.106 align:middle
of those asset classes to be included.

00:14:27.106 --> 00:14:30.446 align:middle
So, I think that's going to be what
plan sponsors are going to be focusing

00:14:30.446 --> 00:14:34.216 align:middle
on is the additional spread,
I guess enough to compensate

00:14:34.216 --> 00:14:36.136 align:middle
for the additional sacrifice in liquidity.

00:14:36.616 --> 00:14:41.476 align:middle
If you're running that type of multi-sector
asset allocation that's also supported

00:14:41.476 --> 00:14:46.606 align:middle
by derivatives, the movements in interest
rates is going to require the asset allocation

00:14:46.606 --> 00:14:50.886 align:middle
to be rebalanced as different sectors have got
different durations and are going to change

00:14:50.886 --> 00:14:54.156 align:middle
in value and move you away from
your strategic asset allocation.

00:14:54.446 --> 00:14:56.256 align:middle
Rebalancing is going to be important.

00:14:56.256 --> 00:14:58.216 align:middle
And then funding collateral
is going to be important.

00:14:58.216 --> 00:15:01.896 align:middle
So for private assets, you're going to
sacrifice a little bit of those abilities,

00:15:02.156 --> 00:15:06.966 align:middle
you definitely need that additional compensation
but it does fit within the overall framework

00:15:06.966 --> 00:15:11.236 align:middle
of thinking about that the LDI
portfolio doesn't necessarily need

00:15:11.236 --> 00:15:13.976 align:middle
to be all long, double-A corporate bonds.

00:15:14.686 --> 00:15:17.976 align:middle
&gt;&gt; And, since you touched on it, one of
the things I wanted to get your perspective

00:15:17.976 --> 00:15:22.406 align:middle
on was the way in which you employ
derivatives as an enhancement

00:15:22.456 --> 00:15:25.706 align:middle
to cash strategies when constructing solutions.

00:15:26.346 --> 00:15:28.596 align:middle
&gt;&gt; Yeah, I think it's really important for us

00:15:28.596 --> 00:15:32.286 align:middle
to hedge the interest rate risk
pretty closely of the liability.

00:15:32.556 --> 00:15:38.576 align:middle
Interest rates are not as quickly mean
reverting as spreads are in certain cases.

00:15:38.806 --> 00:15:43.016 align:middle
And so, while we're more happy to
take on spread reinvestment risk

00:15:43.066 --> 00:15:45.906 align:middle
by being positioned somewhat
shorter on the credit curves,

00:15:45.986 --> 00:15:48.726 align:middle
that doesn't necessarily hold
within interest rates as well.

00:15:48.996 --> 00:15:53.696 align:middle
So we're typically more trying to hedge out
all of our E-rate risk in interest rate space,

00:15:53.696 --> 00:15:58.556 align:middle
and having a toolkit that has got various
different interest rate products in there,

00:15:58.556 --> 00:16:03.786 align:middle
whether it's swaps or Treasury futures or
strips, is important for being able to implement

00:16:03.786 --> 00:16:08.126 align:middle
that multi-sector LDI portfolio
construction, which may have shorter duration

00:16:08.126 --> 00:16:10.116 align:middle
or floating rate credit asset classes in there.

00:16:10.116 --> 00:16:16.756 align:middle
&gt;&gt; I think the other potential
use case is for large transactions

00:16:16.756 --> 00:16:21.876 align:middle
where there's an expediency required, a
threshold has been met, and the sponsor is ready

00:16:21.876 --> 00:16:26.626 align:middle
to action, derivatives can help us
move quickly at scale whilst we build

00:16:26.626 --> 00:16:28.866 align:middle
out a longer-term cash allocation.

00:16:29.446 --> 00:16:36.356 align:middle
Relatedly, how do you think about plan size
and the match between solution types and size?

00:16:36.936 --> 00:16:41.466 align:middle
&gt;&gt; So, everything we've talked about
thus far today is agnostic of size.

00:16:41.526 --> 00:16:45.426 align:middle
And both smaller plans and larger
plans are going to be trying

00:16:45.426 --> 00:16:47.776 align:middle
to implement some of what we've talked about.

00:16:47.776 --> 00:16:53.176 align:middle
But it is true that at a certain point
of size, separate accounts can start

00:16:53.176 --> 00:16:58.476 align:middle
to become less practical for certain plans,
and so those smaller plans are still trying

00:16:58.476 --> 00:17:02.276 align:middle
to implement some of the ideas
we've been talking about and so one

00:17:02.276 --> 00:17:04.856 align:middle
of the things we've been doing recently
in working with some of them on,

00:17:04.856 --> 00:17:09.016 align:middle
is how to blend more co-mingled
strategies in order to achieve some

00:17:09.016 --> 00:17:11.186 align:middle
of the same portfolio construction results.

00:17:11.386 --> 00:17:15.916 align:middle
And so, that's going to really help some
smaller plans try and still take on some

00:17:15.916 --> 00:17:20.896 align:middle
of these multi-sector LDI philosophies,
but you need scale across a number

00:17:20.896 --> 00:17:23.266 align:middle
of different LDI type co-mingled vehicles.

00:17:24.186 --> 00:17:27.506 align:middle
&gt;&gt; Thanks Tom, it's certainly a
really neat time in the LDI space,

00:17:27.506 --> 00:17:29.976 align:middle
which is probably not something
that could have always been said.

00:17:30.056 --> 00:17:36.156 align:middle
The interest rate shift has been a shot
in the arm for plan liabilities coupled

00:17:36.156 --> 00:17:39.506 align:middle
with cash injections from the American
Retirement Act, which we talked about,

00:17:39.556 --> 00:17:43.266 align:middle
has bolstered funded status
and has plan sponsors thinking

00:17:43.266 --> 00:17:45.366 align:middle
about solutions for de-risking.

00:17:45.366 --> 00:17:50.206 align:middle
At the same time that change in nominal
interest rate has really created an environment

00:17:50.206 --> 00:17:54.306 align:middle
where assets can earn a pretty
attractive rate of return,

00:17:54.396 --> 00:17:59.716 align:middle
the sum total of which makes it a really
compelling time to think about LDI solutions.

00:17:59.946 --> 00:18:01.066 align:middle
Thanks again for your time.

00:18:01.066 --> 00:18:02.536 align:middle
Always a great conversation.

00:18:02.786 --> 00:18:07.016 align:middle
If you'd like more thought leadership from
PGIM Fixed Income, including detailed work

00:18:07.016 --> 00:18:11.726 align:middle
on LDI related topics, please check
us out on pgimfixedincome.com.

00:18:13.236 --> 00:18:14.656 align:middle
&gt;&gt; We hope you enjoyed today's podcast.

00:18:15.236 --> 00:18:18.136 align:middle
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00:18:18.326 --> 00:18:21.846 align:middle
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