The ECB left its policy rates unchanged at 2% at its October meeting. And this is happening against a backdrop of macroeconomic data holding up better than expected. That's true both on the economic activity side as well as on inflation. And that led President Lagarde to reiterate her message that the ECB is in a good place and is really fueling expectations that ECB policy rates are likely to remain at the 2% level for the foreseeable future.

The biggest risk for the ECB going into 2026 is to be able to really convince all of us that it's serious about having a symmetric 2% inflation target, something it has never really managed to demonstrate over its relatively short history. But as of today, that risk appears to have abated somewhat.