Grabbing the Bull by the Tail: Assessing Tail Risks Amid Complexity
As a case study into our assessment of tail risks, we discuss how the market-implied probability distribution for a recession has evolved over the past year.
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Guillermo Felices, PhD is a Principal and Global Investment Strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, based in London. Mr. Felices is responsible for designing macro-based investment strategy across asset classes. Prior to joining the Firm in August 2021, Mr. Felices was Head of Investment Strategy and a member of the Multi-Asset Investment Committee at BNP Paribas Asset Management. Previously, he was Head of Asset Allocation Research for Europe at Barclays, having joined in 2011 as Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy for Europe. Earlier, he was a Senior Global Macro Strategist at Citi (2007-2011) and a Senior Economist at the Bank of England (2002-2007). During 2016, Mr. Felices was a Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research has been published in books and academic journals and his commentary has appeared regularly in the global financial press. Mr. Felices holds a PhD and an MA in Economics from New York University (Fulbright Scholar) and he received his BA in Economics from Universidad del Pacifico in Lima, Peru.
All information as of November 2023. For purposes of the biographies, the “Firm” is defined as Prudential Financial, Inc. ("PFI"). All PGIM and Prudential named entities are subsidiaries or affiliates of PFI. PFI of the United States is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom or with Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom.