MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH
A team of global economists conduct proprietary research on economic developments, monetary policies, and market trends to support our investment process.
Value Stands Out in Our Macroeconomic Research
Watch the video to find out how value stands out in PGIM Fixed Income's macroeconomic research process.
Expert Macro Assessments
Every day, PGIM Fixed Income's economists assess macro fundamentals and risks, across multiple categories of fixed income market impactors, including:
Growth and inflation dynamics
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- Gross National Income (GNI)
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Demographics
Relating to populations and/or particular groups within them and their respective impacts on country-specific and global macroeconomics.
Global savings and investment backdrop
- Current account balances
- Direct investment (FDI)
- Portfolio investments
Potential global systemic risks
Across a broad range of categories, including but not limited to:
- natural disasters
- weather events
- changes in interest rates
- conflict
Policy outlook
- Central bank frameworks and reaction functions
- Fiscal policy trends
- Regulatory policy developments
Domestic and internal imbalances
- Credit growth and debt level metrics (e.g., households, corporates, the financial sector, government/sovereign credit risk, etc.)
- Sectoral imbalances (e.g., households)
External imbalances
- Current account balance of payments
- Foreign portfolio investment flows and foreign direct investment flows
We are Living Through a Time of Profound Structural Change that Loosens Global Macroeconomic Anchors
Intensified Great Power Competition
- More frequent conflict & proxy wars
- More frequent and potent use of economic statecraft
- Less cross-border risk management
Unprecedented Political Polarization
- Erosion of political center
- Less orthodox policy; occasional radicalism
- Institutional decay; less policy credibility
Transition from Fossil Fuels to Renewables
- Higher inflation & inflation expectations
- Larger fiscal transfers to cushion worst off
- Winners & losers amid zero sum competition
Supply Chain De-Risking
- Reorientation around geopolitical alliances
- Less focus on efficiency; more focus on resilience
Distinct Technological Ecosystems
- More public investment in foundational technologies, BUT…
- Fewer positive spillovers from technology diffusion, AND
- New forms of hybrid warfare using AI, biotech, quantum, etc.
No risk management technique can guarantee the mitigation or elimination of risk in any market environment.
Source: PGIM Fixed Income. As of November 2024.