A Barometer to Gauge Credit Market Valuations
Through simple market barometers comparing credit spreads with a variety of macro, corporate fundamental, and technical drivers, we can better assess the credit market.
Our outlook starts with a reminder about the prevailing fixed income backdrop. Since 2022, the story is one of bonds posting respectable returns owing to two key factors still in place: moderate economic growth that enables additional central bank rate cuts and investor demand to lock in attractive, long-term income streams. We explain this further in “Hold On; Ride the Bull.” While additional rate cuts support our base case for moderate global economic growth, this outcome is not immune to additional bouts of market upheaval. In “To Each its Own,” we look at the measures major economies are pursuing in the name of faster, more competitive economic growth. We follow with an assessment of the factors that are underpinning healthy corporate credit fundamentals, sector outlooks, and an example of a certain problem with climate risk analysis.
Learn more about the three key themes that shape our quarterly fixed income outlook:
The 2022 bear market hoisted yields to levels not seen in more than a decade, fueling solid fixed income returns since then. Although broad uncertainties will affect short-term conditions, the ongoing bull market demonstrates that elevated yields will likely continue generating attractive returns over the long run. And as 2025 commences, the backdrop warrants “buy-the-dip (in prices)” and carry-oriented approaches.
While we expect additional central bank rate cuts to support moderate global economic growth, this outcome is not immune to additional bouts of market upheaval, possibly aggravated by heightened global competition. Given the historically tight levels on credit spreads, periods of market turbulence may also prompt dislocations across certain markets and sectors.
As economies/policies diverge and dislocations lead to sector dispersion, opportunities to add value through active management will surface. Whether it is
the potential to buy-the-dip or enhance carry, early identification of the affected countries, industries, and issuers—perhaps within the context of further paradigm shifts—assumes newfound importance going forward.
Through simple market barometers comparing credit spreads with a variety of macro, corporate fundamental, and technical drivers, we can better assess the credit market.
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This paper reflects the views within our submission to the European Commission's targeted consultation on the functioning of the EU securitisation framework.
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