Fixed income once again posted solid returns in Q3, continuing the DM bond bull market born out of the ashes of the 2022 bear market. We are optimistic on the broad fixed income outlook, although now, as at every point along the way, questions remain, such as:
1. Now that we are past the peak in rates, how low will they go?
2. Moderation in economic activity and inflation have spurred central banks to ease, but will the softer growth picture threaten the outlook for credit products?
Our responses to these questions—along with several others—chart the course for our outlook in "Living the Dream," by Robert Tipp, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds.
As specific macro risks from the left tail of the distribution emerge, they are notable for the combination of seemingly intractable issues as well as cyclical developments considering our base case for further global moderation and the slight increases in our recession probabilities. We explore these developments in "When Tail Risks Become Tangible," by our Global Macroeconomic Research Team.
Our sector portfolio managers then provide their market outlooks for Q4 and beyond.
