I know the big discussion leading into this FOMC meeting was two Fed governors might dissent for the first time in decades, and that did in fact happen at this FOMC meeting. Our take is we didn't find the dissents overwhelmingly compelling. The Fed governors wanted to cut at this meeting and on fundamental grounds, we actually have a lot of sympathy for that view.

The hurdle was just too high for it to happen today. But, we appreciate that perhaps there is more to way chatter on the idea of cutting. In the end, the dissents change a little as it relates to the fact that more than half of the Committee still expects the Fed will cut twice this year. It just means the dissenters may be off by a meeting or two, assuming nothing changes with the next summary of economic projections, which we'll get at the September meeting.

So, how high is the hurdle to cut in September? I think, given Powells comments today, the hurdle is actually higher than the market thought leading into this meeting. He's still pushing the idea that labor is solid. We don't agree with that characterization. Our view remains if you're using only the payroll report to arrive at this conclusion, then your sample is incomplete.

I won't again run through the list of data points we've been flagging, but beneath the surface, labor is softening. And given one comment in particular that Powell made today, toward the end of the press conference, it seemed to us that he may think breakeven on payroll gains is quite a bit lower than the current running estimate of around 70,000 or so.

If he actually believes that, then it would stand to reason that there is a higher hurdle for him to be surprised by payroll weakness, meaning there may also be a higher hurdle for them to cut in September. Our view remains there will be enough softening over the balance of the year to justify cutting twice.