Key Themes

Our 2026 Outlook assesses the impact of key themes across global economies and markets.

The Era of Fiscal Dominance (and the End of Central Bank Innocence)

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The Era of Fiscal Dominance (and the End of Central Bank Innocence)

Record defense budgets, expanding industrial policy, and rising populism will compel major economies to run historically high deficits. Accompanying demands for low monetary policy rates erodes central banks’ inflation-fighting credibility.

Carry On: Lean into Structural Growth

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Carry On: Lean into Structural Growth

Steeper yield curves, stretched market valuations, and reconfigured economies warrant diversified portfolios constructed for carry and income. 

Productivity Boost Redux

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Productivity Boost Redux

The $7 trillion global AI-buildout threatens near-term over-investment risks. Yet, historical precedent suggests it will ultimately seed a productivity boost that determines growth trajectories, debt dynamics, and the future winners and losers across global industries and corporations. 

The Convergence of Public and Private Markets

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The Convergence of Public and Private Markets

Expanding sources of capital can support borrowers’ credit profiles, and as risk and return profiles converge, investors will benefit from assessing relative value across the public and private credit continuum.

Asset Class Outlooks

Global Economics

 

A new year may prompt investors to rationalise the intersection of major secular themes with near-term cyclical developments. Our economic outlook provides regional context to key secular themes as well as their impact on our global scenarios for the coming 12 months.

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Public & Private Fixed Income

 

We remain guardedly optimistic on entry into what stands to be year four of the “yield is destiny” bond bull market, where high and range bound yields result in solid returns, and confusion creates ample opportunities for adding value through active management.

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