The Implications of the U.S.-China Trade Deal Revisited
The completion of the Phase 1 agreement marks a cease fire in the U.S.-China trade war, and the deal underscores several persistent issues that we considered in a white paper published in April 2019. We find that China’s commitments to hike imports from the United States range from those that will be challenging to those that will likely be even more difficult.
With Brexit All-But Done, Now Comes the Hard Part
The Conservative party’s sweeping victory in the December 13th general election was a landmark event on several fronts. Now, barring the unforeseen, the UK will leave the European Union on January 31, 2020 based on the deal that Prime Minister Johnson previously reached with the EU.
Neither Hawk Nor Dove: The ECB’s Lagarde Suggests the Wisdom of an Owl
After presiding over her first Governing Council (GC) meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde successfully held the policy line, thereby forestalling speculation that the ECB may quickly engage in further easing. At the same time, she carved out flexibility under the upcoming strategic review, outlining its broad scope while appropriately refraining from taking any views on its potential findings, thus avoiding hints about potential policy changes and cementing the status quo, at least for now.
When Social Contracts Fail: The Economic and Investment Implications of Social Protests
Throughout various corners of the world, signs of social unrest are surging in both the streets and the ballot boxes. In an attempt to understand the extent to which these developments could affect the economic outlook of the countries involved and to identify fundamental changes in alpha-generating opportunities, this paper begins by establishing a few common characteristics of the protests. It follows with a brief rundown of some of the most talked-about episodes as well as a discussion on the respective macroeconomic and investment implications.