While Global Growth Remains at Risk, Recession is Unlikely
Despite a shift in investor sentiment, global growth remains at risk. In the latest volume of quarterly outlooks, PGIM’s leading macroeconomic and investment experts share their insights on geopolitical risks, central bank dovishness, the potential rebound of the Chinese economy, and much more.
A Trifecta for EM Equity Outperformance? A Dovish Fed, Steady Dollar and China Stimulus Could Fuel Emerging Markets
Having been cautious on emerging market equities for most of 2018, QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Team has recently shifted to a more positive stance, tactically adding to our EM equity allocation. QMA believes that the global macroeconomic backdrop for EM has improved, and there is a strengthening case for EM outperformance. In this new white paper, QMA explains their latest thinking.
Brexit Developments: Deal or Delay
Despite shifting political dynamics and uncertainty about the sequencing of upcoming events, the base case remains that a hard Brexit will be avoided. That leaves two options as the likeliest scenarios: Prime Minister May’s deal or a longer extension of Article 50, which consequently results in a soft Brexit.
The Fed Squares the Dots—Markets Yet to be Convinced
Although the markets’ conviction that the Fed will be cutting rates grew after the March 20th FOMC meeting, markets may not be easily convinced that the economy is back on Easy Street. Instead, the markets are reacting as if we are in a late-cycle investment environment, which gets riskier for stocks as growth ebbs, but more positive for bonds as the rate cycle has presumably crested.