Global Outlook Darkens With Recession Risks Abound
PGIM Quantitative Solutions’ 4Q 2022 Outlook discusses ways to withstand the slowdown with rising recession risks and elevated level of inflation.
Dec 8, 2022
PGIM Quantitative Solutions’ Rory Cummings, CFA, shares why inflation may linger for longer and how allocating to real assets can improve investor outcomes.
Inflation has remained elevated and persistent in 2022 with consumer prices peaking at an annual growth rate of 9.0% in June, well above four-decade trends. Despite aggressive policy tightening and recent softening, these inflationary pressures may remain elevated over the next several quarters. While our baseline long-term inflation expectations assume a reversion to historical trends, the nearer-term inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.
It would be difficult for a traditionally balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds to generate positive real returns if inflation stays stubbornly high. The bright side is that there are public market investment options available to access exposure to real assets that materially outperform equities and nominal bonds in higher-inflation conditions, both on a historical and forward-looking basis. Although an all-in allocation might not be realistic for many asset owners, most investors should recognize the potential benefits in adjusting portfolio guidelines to accommodate greater allocations to real assets in search of improved outcomes in an elevated inflation regime.
Real assets with positive direct exposure to inflation are uniquely attractive amid high inflation due to their potential to help investors position for improved outcomes.
Portfolio Manager
PGIM Quantitative Solutions
PGIM Quantitative Solutions’ 4Q 2022 Outlook discusses ways to withstand the slowdown with rising recession risks and elevated level of inflation.
PGIM asset managers assess key trends shaping the investment landscape and where to find opportunities for different economic scenarios.
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