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Extending Duration Near Fed Policy Changes Tends to Pay Off

Extending Duration Near Fed Policy Changes Tends to Pay Off

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AVERAGE 12-MONTH RETURNS NEAR FED POLICY CHANGES

Source: Morningstar and Bloomberg as of 6/30/2024. Average returns based on 12-month returns following Fed rate cycle changes using monthly data since 12/31/1982. Returns for periods longer than one year are annualized. Money Markets, Short-Term Bonds, and Intermediate Core Plus Bonds are represented by Morningstar mutual fund category averages.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

CHART HIGHLIGHTS 

  • The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has signaled short-term interest rates cuts soon.
  • Over the past four Fed rate cycles, higher-duration bonds outperformed shorter-duration bonds and money markets near Fed policy changes, with the strongest returns before the first cut. 

MORE SPOTLIGHTS ON THE MARKETS

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Attractive tax-exempt muni yields present compelling opportunities for investors to enhance income and diversification.

Elevated Yields May Boost Bond Return Potential
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Elevated Yields May Boost Bond Return Potential

Mar 4, 2024

The Federal Reserve has stated its intent to keep rates in their normalized range, which may make now a good time to allocate to fixed income.

Bonds Increasingly Attractive If Fed Cuts Rates
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Bonds Increasingly Attractive If Fed Cuts Rates

Jan 19, 2024

With the tightening cycle likely complete and rising potential for several rate cuts this year, now may be a good time to allocate to bonds.

Footnotes

Investing involves risks. Some investments are riskier than others. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate, and shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Investors cannot invest directly into an index. Fixed income investments are subject to credit, market, and interest rate risks, and their value will decline as interest rates rise.  

The views expressed herein are those of PGIM Investments professionals at the time the comments were made and may not be reflective of their current opinions and are subject to change without notice. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. This commentary does not purport to provide any legal, tax, or accounting advice.  

Certain information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date presented; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice.  

Any projections or forecasts presented herein are subject to change without notice. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. Projections and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Accordingly, any projections or forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. Projections or forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.  

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI) and Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (S&P). GICS classifications and related GICS information are provided “as is” with no express or implied warranties. Bloomberg®, Bloomberg Short U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by PGIM Investments. Bloomberg is not affiliated with PGIM Investments, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend PGIM Investments products. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to PGIM Investments products. Frank Russell Company (FRC) is the source and owner of the Russell Index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination, or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is a presentation of the Russell Index data. Frank Russell Company is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in presentations thereof. 

This material is being provided for informational or educational purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any client or prospective clients. The information is not intended as investment advice and is not a recommendation. Clients seeking information regarding their particular investment needs should contact their financial professional.  

Investment products are distributed by Prudential Investment Management Services LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. PGIM Investments is a registered investment advisor and investment manager to all PGIM U.S. open-end investment companies. PGIM Custom Harvest, PGIM Quantitative Solutions, Jennison Associates and PGIM are registered investment advisors and Prudential Financial companies. PGIM Quantitative Solutions is the primary business name of PGIM Quantitative Solutions LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of PGIM. PGIM Fixed Income and PGIM Real Estate are units of PGIM.

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