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Greece—Near-Term Tailwinds, Medium-Term Headwinds

Jürgen Odenius, PhD, Principal, Economic Counsellor, Global Macroeconomic Research Team

Greece’s outlook presents two distinct sides. In the near term, the economy is finally growing at a moderate pace, and the expansion will likely accelerate somewhat in 2020. Yet, structural impediments continue to cloud Greece’s medium-term outlook. In particular, subdued potential growth threatens the renewed deterioration in external balances and risks exacerbating the fragilities of the banking system. While this two-sided outlook presents near-term opportunities for investors, Greece’s recovery will require ongoing monitoring given its deep fragilities.

Assessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Long-Term Growth Upside

Giancarlo Perasso, Lead Economist CEEMA, Global Macroeconomic Research, Elizabeth Doppelt, Senior Investment Analyst, Global Macroeconomic Research, and Brian Levine, Senior Investment Analyst, Global Macroeconomic Research

In this paper, PGIM Fixed Income shares our constructive, medium- to long-term growth outlook for the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, recognizing that growth is a crucial component of debt sustainability. The paper then assesses key longstanding features of SSA economies such as their economic dependence on commodity exports, population growth, fiscal policies, and governance. Lastly,  we review how well SSA countries are prepared to tackle the challenges of climate change across the region.

Recent Thought Leadership

Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, and George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research

The slowing in global growth during the past two years frames a key question for investors: How is global potential growth likely to perform in the years ahead, say for example, over the next decade? We focus our analysis on two clear—and we believe predictable—trends that will shape global economic performance going forward. The first is that global demographics are poised to become less supportive. The second is that Chinese growth is likely to moderate further.

Dispatches from Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq

Giancarlo Perasso, Lead Economist CEEMA, Global Macroeconomic Research

In Lebanon, the desire for improvement has seemingly reached critical mass: nearly every official we spoke to indicated that it was time to address the fiscal situation and undertake structural reforms. Our base case for Jordan is that regional allies and Western-oriented institutions remain anxious to keep Jordan within the fold and will likely continue supporting Amman at the cost of material fundamental improvements. Our discussions on Iraq found that current oil production and exports are probably enough to fund the salaries of 4.5 million public employees, likely making Iraq’s public sector wage bill of 17% of GDP the highest in the world.

Weekly View From The Desk: Eyeing Inflationary Effects


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