Spotlight

Letters from Kyiv

Letters from Kyiv

Giancarlo Perasso, Lead Economist CEEMA, Global Macroeconomic Research Team

In a recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine, PGIM Fixed Income's priorities were threefold:

  • Confirm the political outlook given the country’s new president, upcoming parliamentary elections, and process of forming a new government;
  • Assess the status of Ukraine’s IMF program, financing needs, and efforts for structural reform;
  • Evaluate the fallout, particularly for the National Bank of Ukraine, from the ruling that invalidated the nationalisation of PrivatBank, the country’s largest private bank.

Our findings from the trip reinforced our positioning views on Ukraine’s hard currency sovereign debt.

The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, and George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research

In assessing the strength of the U.S. labor market since the global financial crisis, it is important to consider the quality of the jobs that have been created. This research finds that the jobs created through the current expansion have a distinct “barbell” feature consisting of a remarkable “hollowing out” of jobs in the middle of the income distribution. These findings highlight some of the deep drivers of rising income inequality in the United States. Given that the forces in play seem likely to be persistent, policymakers, market participants, and individual workers are well-advised to embrace these trends and tailor strategies to harness the opportunities that they will generate.  

Recent Thought Leadership

Russia’s Path to Credit Strength Amid Biting Sanctions

Russia’s Path to Credit Strength Amid Biting Sanctions

Giancarlo Perasso Lead Economist, CEEMA Region, Global Macroeconomic Research Team, and Mehill Marku Senior Investment Strategist

Almost five years ago, the United States and the European Union imposed biting sanctions on Russia following its annexation of Crimea, and more sanctions have been added in the subsequent years. However, the Russian economy appears relatively resilient, and the government has yet to experience an obvious popular backlash. Given the state of the Russian economy and the uncertainties that lie ahead, this paper analyzes how Russia has coped with the sanctions thus far, what might lie ahead in the coming months and years, and how this might affect its strong credit profile going forward.

An Overdue Recalibration of the Credit Ratings for Mexico and Pemex

An Overdue Recalibration of the Credit Ratings for Mexico and Pemex

Francisco Campos-Ortiz, PhD, Lead Economist, Latin America, Global Macroeconomic Research Team, Nick Ivanov, CFA, Head of Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Research, and Matthew Duda, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Debt Team

In this paper, PGIM Fixed Income discusses the dynamics that led our internal credit ratings on Mexico and Pemex below the average of the rating agencies, our outlook going forward, and how this view is expressed in our investment strategy.

Weekly View: Dovish Fed, ECB Push Rates Lower, Spreads Tighter

Weekly View: Dovish Fed, ECB Push Rates Lower, Spreads Tighter

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