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Spotlight

Dispatches from Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq

Giancarlo Perasso, Lead Economist CEEMA, Global Macroeconomic Research Team

In Lebanon, the desire for improvement has seemingly reached critical mass: nearly every official we spoke to indicated that it was time to address the fiscal situation and undertake structural reforms. Our base case for Jordan is that regional allies and Western-oriented institutions remain anxious to keep Jordan within the fold and will likely continue supporting Amman at the cost of material fundamental improvements. Our discussions on Iraq found that current oil production and exports are probably enough to fund the salaries of 4.5 million public employees, likely making Iraq’s public sector wage bill of 17% of GDP the highest in the world.

Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, and George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research

The slowing in global growth during the past two years frames a key question for investors: How is global potential growth likely to perform in the years ahead, say for example, over the next decade? We focus our analysis on two clear—and we believe predictable—trends that will shape global economic performance going forward. The first is that global demographics are poised to become less supportive. The second is that Chinese growth is likely to moderate further.

Recent Thought Leadership

Credit Research Roundtable

PGIM Fixed Income

PGIM Fixed Income’s credit research team consists of more than 100 fundamental analysts located in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The team covers the universe of industries applicable to the investment grade corporate, high yield corporate, and bank loan sectors, and the Credit Research Roundtable summarizes views on certain, topical industries, including those with a recent change in credit fundamentals.

Homebuilders as a Case Study in Late-Cycle High Yield

John Maxwell, Principal, High Yield Credit Research Team

For some high-yield investors, the U.S. homebuilding sector may represent a crossroads for the higher-rated portions of the market. Yet, as concerns about an economic slowdown mount, investors may be facing a highly-cyclical sector that generally appears fully valued and possibly on the precipice of weakening economic conditions. In this paper, we examine some key developments with homebuilders that have supported an overweight allocation to the sector and how this allocation has adjusted to the maturing cycle.

Weekly View From The Desk: China Faces More Than Trade Uncertainty

Footnotes

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