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Spotlight

When Social Contracts Fail: The Economic and Investment Implications of Social Protests

Francisco Campos-Ortiz, PhD, Latin America Economist, Global Macroeconomic Research, Mehill Marku, Senior Investment Strategist, Giancarlo Perasso, CEEMA Economist, Global Macroeconomic Research, and Cathy Hepworth, CFA, Co-Head, EMD Team

Throughout various corners of the world, signs of social unrest are surging in both the streets and the ballot boxes. In an attempt to understand the extent to which these developments could affect the economic outlook of the countries involved and to identify fundamental changes in alpha-generating opportunities, this paper begins by establishing a few common characteristics of the protests. It follows with a brief rundown of some of the most talked-about episodes as well as a discussion on the respective macroeconomic and investment implications.

Greece—Near-Term Tailwinds, Medium-Term Headwinds

Jürgen Odenius, PhD, Principal, Economic Counsellor, Global Macroeconomic Research Team

Greece’s outlook presents two distinct sides. In the near term, the economy is finally growing at a moderate pace, and the expansion will likely accelerate somewhat in 2020. Yet, structural impediments continue to cloud Greece’s medium-term outlook. In particular, subdued potential growth threatens the renewed deterioration in external balances and risks exacerbating the fragilities of the banking system. While this two-sided outlook presents near-term opportunities for investors, Greece’s recovery will require ongoing monitoring given its deep fragilities.

Recent Thought Leadership

Assessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Long-Term Growth Upside

Giancarlo Perasso, Lead Economist CEEMA, Global Macroeconomic Research, Elizabeth Doppelt, Senior Investment Analyst, Global Macroeconomic Research, and Brian Levine, Senior Investment Analyst, Global Macroeconomic Research

In this paper, PGIM Fixed Income shares our constructive, medium- to long-term growth outlook for the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, recognizing that growth is a crucial component of debt sustainability. The paper then assesses key longstanding features of SSA economies such as their economic dependence on commodity exports, population growth, fiscal policies, and governance. Lastly,  we review how well SSA countries are prepared to tackle the challenges of climate change across the region.

Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, and George Jiranek, Associate, Global Macroeconomic Research

The slowing in global growth during the past two years frames a key question for investors: How is global potential growth likely to perform in the years ahead, say for example, over the next decade? We focus our analysis on two clear—and we believe predictable—trends that will shape global economic performance going forward. The first is that global demographics are poised to become less supportive. The second is that Chinese growth is likely to moderate further.

Weekly View From The Desk: Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

Footnotes

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