Almost a decade after the Global Financial Crisis, its ghost continues to haunt the investment landscape. But how likely is it that the next crash can be predicted? In examining the research on market crash predictors and macroeconomic early warning systems in the context of today’s market risks, three useful activities for active portfolio and risk managers emerge.
Gerwin Bell, PhD, Lead Economist Asia, Global Macroeconomic Research
Following China’s 19th Communist Party Congress, investors are turning their attention to the outlook for the next five years. We provide our views on the first five years of President Xi’s term—highlighting what we consider to be some misperceptions among market participants—and set out our base case for economic policy going forward
Since the emerging market debt crisis of the 1980s, a gradual re-rating of the sector has opened up a greater set of investment opportunities across asset classes, as Arvind Rajan, PhD, Head of Global and Macro, describes in the accompanying video.
Nathan Sheets, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, explains his short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, its affect on EM economies, and the impact of QE on global bond yields.