Using Cape to Estimate Future Stock Returns
In comparing CAPE model specifications (1/CAPE – 10y US Treasury real yield) has been the best way to incorporate CAPE in estimating future 10y stock returns.
As part of PGIM IAS’s ongoing research on strategic portfolio construction, we have explored the macro drivers, global linkages, and portfolio construction implications of stock-bond correlation in a series of papers dating back to 2021. With US stock-bond correlation having now turned positive, in this paper we discuss which elements of the current economic landscape could provide support for an extended period of positive stock-bond correlation, we review the portfolio construction implications of positive correlation, and we assess what current stock and bond valuations may mean for forward performance.
The IAS team conducts bespoke, quantitative client research that focuses on asset allocation and portfolio analysis.
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In comparing CAPE model specifications (1/CAPE – 10y US Treasury real yield) has been the best way to incorporate CAPE in estimating future 10y stock returns.
PGIM IAS examines how greater scale both enables and pushes investors to allocate differently, with implications for governance as well as investment outcomes.
How responsible investing funds differ in their portfolio construction approaches, revealing divergent green transition approaches and performance outcomes.