Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade

The slowing in global growth during the past two years frames a key question for investors: How is global potential growth likely to perform in the years ahead, say for example, over the next decade? We focus our analysis on two clear—and we believe predictable—trends that will shape global economic performance going forward. The first is that global demographics are poised to become less supportive. The second is that Chinese growth is likely to moderate further. Drawing on these building blocks, we make some probabilistic judgments about how the rest of the global economy will evolve over the next ten years.


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