What’s been the biggest highlight and biggest challenge of 2025 for your team thus far?
We started this year with a lot of ambition, as the fourth quarter of 2024 was quite robust. It hasn’t quite played out that way with investor caution and geopolitical uncertainty. Once we shook the first quarter, though, this year has felt like the beginning of the next cycle. Capital flow from investors has begun picking up more broadly for real estate credit (still not robust, but moving), portfolios are in good shape, and there is significant competition for new loans. We’re off to whatever this cycle will be, even if it’s not as robust as our game plan. The biggest challenge has been the lack of new transaction volumes. There is a shortage of core equity in the market and that is causing a logjam of lenders fighting over refinances. The exit queues are shrinking from Open End Diversified Core Equity but are still sizable. Will that finally break free in 2026?
Which lending opportunities that didn’t exist last year are you grabbing today?
The biggest change in 2025 is the resurgence of our agency lending platform, which is on track to nearly double our investment volume from 2024. Fannie and Freddie have become go-to lenders for multifamily financing and are having a very strong year. They have been a positive surprise to the market.
What role will private credit play in CRE lending over the next year?
Private credit has been growing for decades and we think private credit is closer to the beginning than the end of its growth. Private credit is going to continue to be a major player in 2026. What’s shocked you the most this past year in terms of market activity or response? How quickly some lenders went all-in on data centers. Seems like many players went from hugely skeptical to extreme fear of missing out in a matter of minutes. The story of 2025 has been the growth of digital infrastructure and how to finance these project loans.
What could be the industry’s next black swan?
Statistically, it won’t be what we see, but let’s say that it will likely be a geopolitical event. As a global lender, we see how far the geopolitical risk has ratcheted up to a point where it’s a clear, and consistent, risk. The markets have brushed off several so far, but how long can that go on without affecting markets more broadly?
You have been an active lender on multifamily front of late. What market has the best lending fundamentals for rental housing now and why?
We are a major player in multifamily and have strong, broad conviction in the living sector more broadly. To answer the question specifically, we’re currently favoring supply-constrained markets for multifamily lending at the moment, leaning into their tendency to do well in a productivity-driven cycle. So, at the moment, it’s the Northeast and West Coast markets where there’s less of a supply overhang to work through, though we are cautious of some of the property tax and rent control noise. While the Sun Belt has been a focus for a while, today the gateway markets benefit from low vacancies and they always draw young professionals.
