Oil prices suffered wild swings this week as traders followed real-time developments in the war with Iran. In one of the most volatile days on record for global oil futures, Brent crude surged to an intraday high of $119.50 a barrel on Monday, gaining nearly one-third, before slipping back to $98.96 a barrel at the close. Prices fell further in post-settlement trade, crossing below the $90-a-barrel threshold. The roller-coaster session reflected uncertainty over how long the Iran war might last and whether the oil market would avoid a more severe supply squeeze. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said its member countries would release a combined 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, a record amount. The state of production in the Middle East, European imports, and oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain in focus throughout the conflict.

Changes in the cost of fuel could have a ripple effect that reaches across the global economy. Oil’s impact varies by region and has changed dramatically since the U.S. shale revolution, which propelled the nation to energy-exporter status. As a result, higher oil prices could push up headline inflation—core inflation readings strip out energy costs—but the effects on U.S. growth are largely offsetting. The consumer price index was up 2.4% year-over-year in February, and core inflation sat at 2.5%, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Both measures were unchanged from the previous month.

PGIM’s Weekly View from the Desk takes a closer look at three potential scenarios describing how oil volatility and energy-related events could develop as the Iran war continues.