The decade-long run of outperformance enjoyed by emerging market equities in the early 2000s came to an end as global growth slumped following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). With emerging market economies experiencing an even more pronounced post-GFC slowdown, emerging market equities became hindered by margin compression and currency headwinds. The impact of these conditions has lasted longer than anticipated, so while emerging markets have historically been favored due to their relative inefficiency and low correlations to developed markets, asset owners haven’t been rewarded for their emerging markets allocations for quite some time until recently.
While timing asset class allocations is notoriously difficult, we believe now is a good entry point for long-term investors to consider a more constructive position on emerging markets even with the recent rally. Our perspective is anchored in three key pillars: