10-YEAR STRATEGIC FORECAST

CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

November 2026 | Expected returns, risk, and portfolio implications across public and private assets.

MARKET MOVES

WHAT'S CHANGED?

Relative to our March 31, 2026 forecasts, our long-term outlook for fixed income assets has improved significantly, consistent with rising underlying sovereign rates and relatively stable credit spreads. Our 10-year forecasts for equity markets decreased across regions as equity market advances resulted in less favorable valuations.

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Source: PGIM. As of September 30, 2026. Expected returns are forecasts, are gross of fees and expenses (which would reduce returns), and are not reflective of PGIM portfolio returns. Shown for illustrative purposes only. Forecasts are based on PGIM's assumptions, may not be achieved, are subject to change and are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Expected returns are annualized geometric returns over a 10-year horizon in U.S. dollars. Changes are shown in percentage points. Global 60/40 portfolio reflects a hypothetical allocation of 60% global equities unhedged and 40% global aggregate bonds hedged, rebalanced quarterly. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy. See the Methodology section and report for assumptions and calculation methodology.

 

2027 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

Explore the forces reshaping markets and the nuanced opportunities emerging across asset classes over the coming 12 months.

Cover of PGIM’s 2027 Global Market Outlook, Growth Without Goldilocks, set against a blue circle.

RISK-RETURN

EXPLORE 10-YEAR FORECAST RETURNS AND VOLATILITY

See how long-term gross return potential and expected volatility compare across public and private assets.

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Source: PGIM. As of September 30, 2026. Expected returns are forecasts, are gross of fees, expenses and, where applicable, carried interest (which would reduce returns), and are not reflective of PGIM portfolio returns. Shown for illustrative purposes only. Forecasts are based on PGIM's assumptions, may not be achieved, are subject to change and are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Expected returns are annualized geometric returns over a 10-year horizon in U.S. dollars; expected volatility is the annualized standard deviation of returns. Private market investments involve additional risks, including illiquidity, valuation uncertainty and, in some cases, leverage, and may not be available to all investors. Private market return and volatility assumptions are tied to those of comparable public market assets and assigns a premium consistent with historical empirical outcomes. Global 60/40 portfolio reflects a hypothetical allocation of 60% equities and 40% fixed income, rebalanced quarterly. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy. See the Methodology section and report for assumptions and calculation methodology.

METHODOLOGY

HOW PGIM DEVELOPS ITS ASSUMPTIONS

MACRO INPUTS

Establish the economic foundation through views on growth, inflation, and real rates.

ASSET INPUTS

Translate the macro outlook into asset-level expectations for income, growth, and valuation.

COUNCIL REVIEW

Challenge and refine assumptions to ensure consistency across asset classes.

PORTFOLIOS

Apply the assumptions to inform long-term strategic asset allocation decisions.

FAQ

INVESTORS ARE ASKING

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