The U.S. Economy's Remarkable Resilience to Higher Interest Rates
Will the economy's reduced sensitivity to interest rates begin to fade, or is 2023's strong growth repeatable? We believe the answer lies somewhere in between.
The question above continues to confound the market consensus. While we can point to the resiliency in recent data, the proper context is needed to help to extrapolate these economic conditions into strategic investment views.
We have packaged the following insights into three themes that we believe shed light on the main factors driving resiliency:
1. U.S. Economy: Evolving interest-rate sensitivity
2. Global: The future of inflation
3. Our Expectations: Interest rates and fixed income performance
Will the economy's reduced sensitivity to interest rates begin to fade, or is 2023's strong growth repeatable? We believe the answer lies somewhere in between.
The U.S. economy has defied predictions of recession amid post-pandemic interest rate volatility.
Our research series reveals that a varied adjustment process across certain sectors lowered the broader economy’s sensitivity to interest rates.
This blog shares our views on the relationship between corporate margins and different U.S. economic growth scenarios using our corporate profit model to estimate performance.
We explore the historical transmission from tighter monetary policy to corporate bond spreads and the respective investment implications under our "weakflation" scenario.
A discussion on the end of the hiking cycle, the impact of fiscal deficits on long-term rates, and the interplay between rates, curve shape, and the economy.
With the vast majority of rate hikes behind us, market volatility is set to fall. A tailwind from the reemergence of the “search for yield” is likely to follow.
Bond investors shouldn’t lose sight of the fact 2022's historic increase in bond yields could lead to bond returns in the next decade that are two to three times higher than the prior decade.