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Portfolio Construction

Using Cape to Estimate Future Stock Returns

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In comparing CAPE model specifications (1/CAPE - 10y US Treasury real yield) has been the best way to incorporate CAPE in estimating future 10y stock returns.

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There is growing interest in collective defined contribution schemes as pension systems adapt to changing economics and demographics.

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These materials are for informational or educational purposes only.

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The information contained herein is provided by PGIM, the principal asset management business of Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI), and a trading name of PGIM, Inc. and its global subsidiaries. PGIM, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

In the United Kingdom, information is issued by PGIM Limited with registered office: Grand Buildings, 1-3 Strand, Trafalgar Square, London, WC2N5HR. PGIM Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) of the United Kingdom (Firm Reference Number 193418). In the European Economic Area (“EEA”), information is issued by PGIM Netherlands B.V. with registered office: Eduard van Beinumstraat 6 1077CZ, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. PGIM Netherlands B.V. is, authorised by the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (“AFM”) in the Netherlands (Registration number 15003620) and operating on the basis of a European passport. In certain EEA countries, information is, where permitted, presented by PGIM Limited in reliance of provisions, exemptions or licenses available to PGIM Limited under temporary permission arrangements following the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. These materials are issued by PGIM Limited and/or PGIM Netherlands B.V. to persons who are professional clients as defined under the rules of the FCA and/or to persons who are professional clients as defined in the relevant local implementation of Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II). In Italy, information is provided by PGIM Limited authorized to operate in Italy by Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB).  In Japan, information is provided by PGIM Japan Co., Ltd. (“PGIM Japan”) and/or PGIM Real Estate (Japan) Ltd. (“PGIMREJ”). PGIM Japan, a registered Financial Instruments Business Operator with the Financial Services Agency of Japan offers various investment management services in Japan. PGIMREJ is a Japanese real estate asset manager that is registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau of Japan. In Hong Kong, information is provided by PGIM (Hong Kong) Limited, a regulated entity with the Securities & Futures Commission in Hong Kong to professional investors as defined in Section 1 of Part 1 of Schedule 1 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571). In Singapore, information is issued by PGIM (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (“PGIM Singapore”), a regulated entity with the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services License to conduct fund management and an exempt financial adviser. This material is issued by PGIM Singapore for the general information of “institutional investors” pursuant to Section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore (the “SFA”) and “accredited investors” and other relevant persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Section 305 of the SFA. In South Korea, information is issued by PGIM, Inc., which is licensed to provide discretionary investment management services directly to South Korean qualified institutional investors on a cross-border basis. In Australia, information is issued by PGIM (Australia) Pty Ltd (“PGIM Australia”) for the general information of its wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). PGIM Australia is an Australian financial services (“AFS”) licence holder (AFS licence number 544946). The information is provided to wholesale investors in accordance with Schedule 1, Clause 3 of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 in New Zealand. To invest as a wholesale investor in New Zealand, investors must fit the criteria as set out in the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013. In China, the information is provided at your request and is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation about managing or investing assets. 

In Canada, pursuant to the international adviser registration exemption in National Instrument 31-103, PGIM, Inc. is informing you that: (1) PGIM, Inc. is not registered in Canada and is advising you in reliance upon an exemption from the adviser registration requirement under National Instrument 31-103; (2) PGIM, Inc.’s jurisdiction of residence is New Jersey, U.S.A.; (3) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against PGIM, Inc. because it is resident outside of Canada and all or substantially all of its assets may be situated outside of Canada; and (4) the name and address of the agent for service of process of PGIM, Inc. in the applicable Provinces of Canada are as follows: in Québec: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 1000 de La Gauchetière Street West, Suite 900 Montréal, QC H3B 5H4; in British Columbia: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 1200 Waterfront Centre, 200 Burrard Street, Vancouver, BC V7X 1T2; in Ontario: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 22 Adelaide Street West, Suite 3400, Toronto, ON M5H 4E3; in Nova Scotia: Cox & Palmer, Q.C., 1100 Purdy’s Wharf Tower One, 1959 Upper Water Street, P.O. Box 2380 - Stn Central RPO, Halifax, NS B3J 3E5; in Alberta: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 530 Third Avenue S.W., Calgary, AB T2P R3.

This information is not intended as investment advice and is not a recommendation about managing or investing assets or an offer or solicitation in respect of any products or services to any persons who are prohibited from receiving such information under the laws applicable to their place of citizenship, domicile or residence. In providing these materials, PGIM is not acting as your fiduciary. These materials represent the views, opinions and recommendations of the author(s) regarding the economic conditions, asset classes, securities, issuers or financial instruments referenced herein. Certain information has been obtained from sources that PGIM believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, PGIM cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. This information, including projections and forecasts, is current as of the date of issuance (or an earlier referenced date) and is subject to change without notice. PGIM has no obligation to update such information; nor do we make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy or accept responsibility for errors. PGIM and its affiliates may develop and publish research that is independent of, and different than, the recommendations contained herein.  References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell such securities.

Prudential Financial, Inc. of the United States is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom or with Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom.

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