Weekly View: Color on U.S. Recession Probabilities for 2020

Kick off the week with PGIM Fixed Income’s view from the desk, which offers a concise snapshot of macro trends, rates, emerging market debt and more. 

The Fed Serves Up Another Incremental Cut Amid “Disparate Perspectives”

September 2019

At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate for a second time this year. Taking into consideration the outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation, PGIM Fixed Income believes the risks are heavily skewed towards an additional rate cut later this year or early next year.

After the Storm: Next Steps for the Repo Market

September 2019

PGIM Fixed Income explores factors of the recent stress in the U.S. repurchase (repo) market—including developments in monetary policy, banking regulations, Treasury issuance, and corporate tax payments.

U.S. Rates: Low for Long, but Likely Positive

August 2019

The burgeoning stock of negative-yielding debt across international markets has investors wondering: will it happen in the U.S. too? However, PGIM Fixed Income expects U.S. rates to fluctuate around current levels and ultimately remain positive.

Turkey—A Short-Term Reprieve Amidst Persistent Uncertainties

August 2019

Turkey’s economic crisis erupted one year ago, and PGIM Fixed Income recently returned to the country to gauge the outlook going forward. While Turkey’s large external financing requirements remain its key vulnerability, funding flows should continue normalizing.
 

Argentina: 5 Key Questions

August 2019

The unexpected and shocking defeat of President Macri and his center-right party in the Argentine primaries on August 11 has led to a significant repricing of Argentina assets.

In a new white paper, PGIM Fixed Income provides revised macro forecasts given our base case that the Fernandez ticket wins the October election, and provides perspective on 5 key questions regarding how events may unfold in Argentina going forward.

The Fed's About-Face Complete Amid Dissent

August 2019

PGIM Fixed Income discusses market disappointment with the Fed’s 25 bp rate cut on July 31, 2019. Short-term yields rose amid reduced expectations for cuts. However, long rates declined, suggesting that the less-dovish-than-expected Fed could dampen inflation and growth over the long run.

4th Quarter Outlooks and Reviews

The Story of the Global Growth Slowdown

In this installment of quarterly outlooks, PGIM experts assess the next chapter in the global growth story, including geopolitical uncertainty, central bank dovishness and more.