Weekly View: Observations from the IMF Meetings

Kick off the week with PGIM Fixed Income’s view from the desk, which offers a concise snapshot of macro trends, rates, emerging market debt and more. 

Brexit Developments: Deal or Delay

March 2019

Despite shifting political dynamics and uncertainty about the sequencing of upcoming events, the base case remains that a hard Brexit will be avoided. That leaves two options as the likeliest scenarios: Prime Minister May’s deal or a longer extension of Article 50, which consequently results in a soft Brexit.  In this white paper, PGIM Fixed Income reviews the most recent Brexit developments.

The Fed's Challenge of Squaring the Dots

March 2019

PGIM Fixed Income looks at: 1) the message that the Fed heard from the markets late last year; 2) how the Fed responded; 3) the upcoming task of “squaring the dots” (i.e. the projections for the Fed funds rate) at the upcoming March meeting, and, perhaps most important; 4) why the Fed’s late-stage fine tuning has taken on such importance this cycle.

ECB—Surprisingly Dovish on Several Counts

March 2019

The ECB surprised the market with a package that is designed to impress and stamp out skepticism that the central bank may be out of ammunition with policy rates already in much-criticized negative territory and having just stopped its bond purchases at year end. In this brief piece, PGIM Fixed Income reviews the ECB’s shift to a more dovish stance.

Fed Shift from "Put" to "Collar" Bodes Well for Spread Product 

March 2019

In this paper, PGIM Fixed Income discusses the Federal Reserve's implicit adoption of a “market-collar” approach, becoming more accommodative when markets become too risk averse (the well-recognized “Fed put”) and removing accommodation if markets become too ebullient (the “Fed cap”).

The LIBOR Transition

March 2019

PGIM Fixed Income’s second white paper on the LIBOR transition addresses: (1) the progress to date; (2) critical future milestones; and (3) concerns regarding the sufficiency of SOFR as an adequate LIBOR replacement.

Another Sharp Pullback, but Not the Start of a Bear Market

October 2018 

The sharp pullback in stocks seen in October is another correction in an ongoing bull market, not the start of a bear market, according to QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions team in a new Market Pulse.

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First Hand Perspective on Sub-Saharan Africa 

May 2018 

As major central banks continue to withdraw policy accommodation, the sustainability of the external debt accumulated by frontier markets— particularly Sub-Saharan Africa—has come into question, prompting Giancarlo Perasso, Lead Economist, PGIM Fixed Income, to visit the region. In this video, Perasso provides his assessment of the fundamentals in Angola, Kenya, and Zambia and how our positioning aligns with these views. 

2Q19 Outlooks and Reviews

While Global Growth Remains at Risk, Recession is Unlikely

Despite a shift in investor sentiment, global growth remains at risk. In the latest volume of quarterly outlooks, PGIM’s leading macroeconomic and investment experts share their insights on geopolitical risks, central bank dovishness, the potential rebound of the Chinese economy, and much more.