Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade
The slowing in global growth during the past two years frames a key question for investors: How is global potential growth likely to perform in the years ahead, say for example, over the next decade?
The Fed Serves Up Another Incremental Cut Amid “Disparate Perspectives”
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate for a second time this year. Should investors expect another rate cut before year-end or will FOMC division delay further rate cuts going forward?
Capturing the Opportunity of Constraints
Fixed income markets contain a high proportion of investors whose goal of identifying the most attractive relative value is subverted by jurisdictional or self-imposed rules, regulations, and constraints, or is superseded by other non-economic objectives, such as accounting conventions.
U.S. Rates: Low for Long, but Likely Positive
The burgeoning stock of negative-yielding debt across the international markets has investors wondering: will it happen in the U.S. too? Given our long-standing “low for long” thesis for the global bond markets, we expect U.S. rates to fluctuate around current levels and ultimately remain positive given some key distinctions between the U.S. and the growing list of negative-yielding countries. Our assessment starts at the front-end of the curve and whether the Federal Reserve could resort to a nominally negative Fed funds rate. We then look at factors affecting longer-term rates.