Frontier Case Study: Ecuador’s Path to Economic Sustainability

PGIM Fixed Income

May 2019

Francisco Campos-Ortiz, PhD, Lead Economist, Latin America, Macroeconomic Research Team, and Matthew Duda, CFA, Principal, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Debt Team

This case study showcases PGIM Fixed Income’s investment approach to frontier markets, which includes a combination of macroeconomic fundamental analysis, insight into the political backdrop, and inferences from in-person discussions with key stakeholders. Ecuador’s adjustment program backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has the scope to address key structural shortcomings that could materially strengthen the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals, while providing enough financing to avert any credit event over the life of the program, provided that it is successfully implemented.




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