When Social Contracts Fail: The Economic and Investment Implications of Social Protests
Throughout various corners of the world, signs of social unrest are surging in both the streets and the ballot boxes. In an attempt to understand the extent to which these developments could affect the economic outlook of the countries involved and to identify fundamental changes in alpha-generating opportunities, this paper begins by establishing a few common characteristics of the protests. It follows with a brief rundown of some of the most talked-about episodes as well as a discussion on the respective macroeconomic and investment implications.
Greece—Near-Term Tailwinds, Medium-Term Headwinds
With a tumultuous decade behind it, Greece’s outlook presents two distinct sides. In the near term, there are numerous developments that support a positive outlook for the Greek economy as well as for holders of Greek government bonds. The economy is finally growing at a moderate pace, and the expansion will likely accelerate somewhat in 2020 on improved investment expenditures and household consumption.
Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade
The slowing in global growth during the past two years frames a key question for investors: How is global potential growth likely to perform in the years ahead, say for example, over the next decade?
The Fed Serves Up Another Incremental Cut Amid “Disparate Perspectives”
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate for a second time this year. Should investors expect another rate cut before year-end or will FOMC division delay further rate cuts going forward?