The Outlook for the Trade War: Assessing President Trump’s Next Move

PGIM Fixed Income

January 2019

With the trade negotiations between the United States and China appearing to gain traction, it’s useful to step back and consider the outlook and prospects for the trade war. What are the key factors shaping President Trump’s choice set? What are some possible outcomes for the year ahead? And what does it mean for markets? This paper includes our observations regarding President Trump’s incentives and some lessons that we have drawn from his actions over the past year.

 

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