Venezuela at the Crossroads

PGIM Fixed Income

January 2019

Nicolas Maduro’s rule appears to be approaching its end, but the exact timing and path of the political transition remains uncertain despite the strong momentum behind the anti-government protest. Geopolitical rivalries, foreign influences, military interests, and doubts about the protest movement’s staying power suggest that the restoration of democracy in Venezuela will likely be hard to achieve without a strong diplomatic and economic commitment by the U.S. and its allies. This paper provides an update on the current situation in Venezuela, provides potential market implications, and explores factors for a successful transition.

 

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