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Bond funds tend to outperform Certificates of deposit after peak rates 

  • Higher yields continue to drive investor interest in certificates of deposit (CDs), which become increasingly vulnerable to reinvestment risk as the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle approaches its end. 
  • Although subject to price volatility, short-term and intermediate core-plus bonds outperformed CDs notably following the last six peaks in CD rates over the past 39 years. 
Source: PGIM Investments, using data from Morningstar and Bankrate.com as of 12/31/2022. Short-Term Bond and Intermediate Core-Plus Bond are represented by Morningstar category averages and represent two of the largest taxable fixed income categories in Morningstar. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. *See additional disclosure below.
Investors may benefit from extending duration and broadening sector exposures prior to the end of the Federal Reserve hiking cycle.
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SEE OTHER SPOTLIGHTS

Short-duration bonds offer attractive yield/duration

Short-duration bonds offer attractive yield/duration

Feb 24, 2023

Given longer-term interest rate uncertainty, short-duration assets may provide investors with better yields with less term-risk than longer-dated bonds.

SPOTLIGHT | On the Markets
Market Charts

SPOTLIGHT | On the Markets

Jun 7, 2022

Data illustrating current market conditions and trends—and what they mean for investors

High growth stocks on sale after recent sell-off

High growth stocks on sale after recent sell-off

Feb 9, 2023

Lower prices from the recent sell-off may present good entry points for quality companies able to deliver consistently strong earnings growth.

History Favors Equity Investors After Negative Years

History Favors Equity Investors After Negative Years

Feb 1, 2023

Despite more potential volatility in 2023, investors may be able to capitalize on tax loss harvesting and rebound opportunities.

Bonds Deliver Strong Returns After Yield Curve Inversions

Bonds Deliver Strong Returns After Yield Curve Inversions

Jan 3, 2023

Fixed income investors may reap the benefits of higher income and greater return potential going forward.

*A CD is a savings account that holds a fixed amount of money for a fixed period of time, and in exchange, the issuing bank pays interest and is FDIC insured up to $250,000 per the US Securities and Exchange Commission. When you redeem your CD, you receive the money you originally invested plus any interest. Short-Term Bonds invest primarily in corporate and other investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and typically have durations of 1.0 to 3.5 years. Intermediate Core-Plus Bonds invest primarily in investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues including government, corporate, and securitized debt, but generally have greater flexibility than core offerings to hold non-core sectors such as corporate high yield, bank loan, emerging-markets debt, and non-U.S. currency exposures. Returns for 3-years and 5-years are annualized. Average returns are calculated following peak CD rate periods, it is important to note that other periods may have produced different results. CD peak rate periods are based on historical monthly data. For illustrative purposes only. Investing involves risks. Some investments are riskier than others. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate, and shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

The views expressed herein are those of PGIM Investments professionals at the time the comments were made and may not be reflective of their current opinions and are subject to change without notice. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. This commentary does not purport to provide any legal, tax, or accounting advice.  

Certain information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date presented; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice.  

Any projections or forecasts presented herein are subject to change without notice. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. Projections and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Accordingly, any projections or forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. Projections or forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. 

© 2023 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI) and Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (S&P). GICS classifications and related GICS information are provided “as is” with no express or implied warranties. Bloomberg is not affiliated with PGIM Investments, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend PGIM Investments products. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to PGIM Investments products.  

Prudential Investment Management Services LLC is a Prudential Financial company and FINRA member firm. Jennison Associates and PGIM, Inc. (PGIM) are registered investment advisors and Prudential Financial companies. PGIM Quantitative Solutions is the primary business name of PGIM Quantitative Solutions LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of PGIM. PGIM Fixed Income and PGIM Real Estate are units of PGIM. © 2023 Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities. Jennison Associates, Jennison, PGIM Real Estate, PGIM, and the PGIM logo are service marks of Prudential. 

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