Mideast Tension Heightens Geopolitical Risks
As the events of this week prove all too well, geopolitical risk is always lurking.
Markets whipsawed this week as investors digested a slate of fresh economic indicators that revealed a slowdown in US hiring and manufacturing activity over the summer. There were 7.7 million jobs available at the end of July, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. That was down from 7.9 million a month earlier, which was revised lower from a previous estimate of 8.2 million. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continued its struggles in August. Factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month amid weaker new orders and production, while inventories grew, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The US economic outlook has been in focus with the Federal Reserve laying the groundwork for an interest-rate pivot in the coming weeks. Fed Chair Jay Powell has hinted that officials are prepared to cut rates at their meeting in mid-September, and interest-rate futures show that investors expect further easing before the end of the year. The last monthly jobs report before the September meeting will come on Friday. Economists forecast that employers added 161,000 jobs, an increase over 114,000 in July, to bring the unemployment rate down to 4.2% from 4.3%. In its third-quarter Capital Market Assumptions, PGIM Quantitative Solutions examines the impact of rate decisions and macro conditions on long-term forecasts.
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As the events of this week prove all too well, geopolitical risk is always lurking.
Market speculation over how much the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates turned into curiosity over the pace of easing going forward.
The fed slashed interest rates by a half percentage point on Wednesday, a decisive policy pivot after aggressively fighting inflation for more than two years.