President Trump’s second term has thus far been defined by aggressive trade policies that have roiled financial markets and driven global economic uncertainty. Concerns surrounding US tariff policy has begun to ripple through the global economy, prompting firms to reassess business strategies and stockpile inventory ahead of anticipated tariffs. Despite this near-term volatility, PGIM Quantitative Solutions’ Multi-Asset team left its 10-year US GDP growth forecast roughly unchanged at around 2.1%. For Developed Markets outside the US, the 10-year expectation for real GDP growth is 1.2%, while for Emerging Markets, higher nominal GDP growth relative to Developed Markets is expected to result in long-run nominal earnings growth of 6.0%.
For Q3 2025, the Multi-Asset team’s annualised nominal 10-year return forecast for Global Equities is 6.4%, a decrease from the 6.9% forecast for Q2 2025. The long-run forecast for hedged Global Aggregate Bonds is 4.4%, roughly in line with last quarter’s forecast. The team’s forecast return for a balanced portfolio of 60% Global Equities unhedged and 40% Global Aggregate Bonds hedged is 6.0% annually over the next 10 years, a decrease of 0.3% from Q2 2025.
Source for all forecasts: PGIM Quantitative Solutions as of 30 June 2025. Forecasts may not be achieved and are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results.
References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. The securities referenced may or may not be held in the portfolio at the time of publication and, if such securities are held, no representation is being made that such securities will continue to be held.
The views expressed herein are those of PGIM investment professionals at the time the comments were made, may not be reflective of their current opinions, and are subject to change without notice. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. Neither PFI, its affiliates, nor their licensed sales professionals render tax or legal advice. Clients should consult with their attorney, accountant, and/or tax professional for advice concerning their particular situation. Certain information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date presented; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice. The manager has no obligation to update any or all such information; nor do we make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy.
Any projections or forecasts presented herein are subject to change without notice. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. Projections and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Accordingly, any projections or forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. Projections or forecasts are estimated based on assumptions, subject to significant revision, and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.
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