Event: Berlin Global Dialogue

Navigating the New Global Economic Order: Three Insights from Berlin

November 11, 2025


Key Takeaways 
  • Central banks are losing independence as governments assert fiscal dominance
  • Global subsidy war risks rise, access to countries’ productive capacity is key
  • Ad hoc interventionism risks turning industrial policy into political point scoring

 

Berlin Global Dialogue unites international leaders from business, politics, and academia to develop joint solutions for the most pressing challenges impacting the global economy. Established in 2022, the annual summit convenes select high-level participants for candid exchanges in interactive formats that highlight diverse perspectives and facilitate cross-disciplinary collaboration.

It was founded by Lars-Hendrik Röller, who previously served as Chief Economic Advisor to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Notable participants in previous years have included Saudi Economics Minister Faisal F. Alibrahim, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, among others. The 2025 edition explored how multipolarity can function as a catalyst for global growth and stability. 

Daleep Singh, chief global economist at PGIM participated in a panel alongside Faisal bin Fadhil Alibrahim, Minister of Economy and Planning, Saudi Arabia and Elif Bilgi Zapparoli, Head of International Client Strategy, Bank of America. 

Daleep Singh
Daleep Singh

Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist

Highlights from the discussion:

1. Fiscal Dominance and the Erosion of Central Bank Independence

In this new paradigm, central banks are becoming price takers, subordinated to political authorities. Governments are ushering in an era of fiscal dominance, driven by defence spending, industrial policy, and strategic economic interventions. Economic tools are being weaponised to fracture global interdependence and gain geopolitical leverage.

This shift has profound implications for monetary policy. The independence of institutions like the Federal Reserve is no longer binary, it exists on a continuum. There are growing instances of jawboning and informal oversight globally. 

The Federal Reserve Act has been amended over two hundred times since 1913 and as such, offers no constitutional protection. As political pressure mounts, markets may eventually respond - but only once the erosion of institutional norms becomes too visible to ignore.

2. Industrial Policy: A Strategic Imperative

Governments across the world are increasingly recognising that the private sector alone cannot solve the most pressing challenges to economic and national security. In the U.S., both the current and previous administrations have pursued industrial policy to rebuild the industrial base, secure supply chains, sustain technological leadership, reboot the defence sector and safeguard energy security.

Industrial policy tools vary, but all aim to reshape economic output in alignment with national interests. However, ad hoc interventionism risks turning industrial policy into a political piggy bank. To avoid this, a principled framework is essential. Such a framework should include:

  • Strategic Objective: Define the goal: resilience, security, innovation.
  • Market Failure Diagnosis: Identify the capital constraint, demand and supply bottlenecks.
  • Instrument Matching: Align policy tools with the specific failure.
  • Competition Preservation: Avoid creating monopolies or permanent government dependencies.
  • Success Metrics: Focus on strategic returns, not just financial gains.
  • Exit Strategy: Plan for sunsetting support and divesting public stakes.
  • Internationalisation: Ensure policies are positive-sum and scalable across borders.
3. Sectoral Economic Zones: A Middle Path 

The global economy is drifting toward a transactional form of autarky - a "law of the jungle" approach. This is a dangerous path. Hyper-globalisation created vulnerabilities, but isolationism reduces market size, stifles innovation, and lowers the economic cost of conflict.

As countries scale up industrial policy, the risk of a global subsidy war looms large. Yet there is a growing consensus among rule-abiding nations that strategic sectors, for example, semiconductors, EVs, batteries and solar panels, require coordinated investment.

The key question is whether countries can grant each other access to their productive capacity and purchasing power, while collectively raising barriers against those not playing by the same rules. No one is fully aligned yet, but progress looks promising.  The G7, for instance, has evolved from ignoring economic security to making it a central theme.

The challenge now is to rebuild a rules-based economic order that balances national interests with global cooperation. That requires technocratic, unsentimental work: shared playbooks, aligned incentives, and trusted trade corridors.

Between hyper-globalisation and rank isolationism lies a more sustainable model: Sectoral Economic Zones. These zones allow countries to collaborate on critical supply chains where domestic capacity is insufficient and import dependence is high.

By partnering with like-minded nations, countries can rebuild the connective tissue of the global economy. This approach balances resilience with openness, avoiding the pitfalls of both excessive dependence and isolation. 

Watch the full panel discussion

Watch Daleep’s full panel discussion alongside Faisal bin Fadhil Alibrahim, Minister of Economy and Planning, Saudi Arabia and Elif Bilgi Zapparoli, Head of International Client Strategy, Bank of America.

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