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Private Real Estate Cycle Takes a Positive TurnPrivateRealEstateCycleTakesaPositiveTurn

Dec 12, 2024

As markets heal from sharp dislocations and bottoming values, lower rate potential boosts the dealmaking environment, fueling a brighter real estate outlook.

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Global real estate values have reset after rising rates drove repricing of 20% to 25% over the past two years. As capital markets heal after sharp dislocations and values bottom across most sectors, opportunities abound amid gathering momentum. Against that backdrop, increasingly confident investors lifted private real estate to its first positive return in seven quarters in the third quarter, drawing attention to an attractive entry point marked by more welcoming monetary conditions.

LOWER RATE TAILWINDS 

With lower interest rates fueling a brighter outlook for 2025, we believe it is a great time to explore real estate opportunities across the risk spectrum. Lower rates should foster a better dealmaking environment that boosts long-term growth potential. 

AN EMERGING NEW CYCLE 

One of the nice things about real estate is that it is cyclical, and the cycles tend to be predictable. Historically, income remains steady through cycles with healthy capital appreciation over the long term. The relatively few drawdown periods on record tended to be short-lived and followed by prolonged recovery periods. 

Sources: Morningstar, PGIM Real Estate as of 9/30/2024. Based on NCREIF Fund Index – Open End Diversified Core Equity (NFI-ODCE). Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Darin Bright

Head of U.S. Core Plus Investment Platform

PGIM Real Estate

History has shown that it’s better to invest early in the cycle to increase growth potential and reduce the probability of capital losses. With asset repricing likely past its trough, we think now is an opportune time for long-term investors to add capital to private real estate markets.
Darin BrightHead of U.S. Core Plus Investment PlatformPGIM Real Estate

PREVAILING STRUCTURAL GROWTH THEMES 

  • Demographic shifts: Aging baby boomers and millennials are the two largest demographic segments. A significant housing shortage for these groups is driving surging demand for senior living, affordable housing, and self-storage. Demographic trends are also creating interesting opportunities in necessity-based retail and life sciences. 
  • Digitalization: Continued digital transformation is materially changing the real estate landscape in areas such as logistics (distribution and last mile), office with knowledge-based tenancy, and life sciences. As e-commerce grows, industrial and retail play complementary roles, with e-commerce driving industrial demand while bricks and clicks support well-located retail that offers daily use and services. 

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ACTIVELY INVESTING THROUGH PARADIGM SHIFTS

ACTIVELY INVESTING THROUGH PARADIGM SHIFTS

Dec 12, 2024

PGIM asset managers highlight key trends and related opportunities that they believe warrant the most investor attention as 2025 gets underway.

The views expressed herein are those of PGIM Real Estate investment professionals at the time the comments were made and may not be reflective of their current opinions and are subject to change without notice. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.  

Certain information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date presented; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice. The manager has no obligation to update any or all such information, nor do we make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy. Any projections or forecasts presented herein are subject to change without notice. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. Projections and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Accordingly, any projections or forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. Projections or forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, subject to significant revision, and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.  

This material is being provided for informational or educational purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any client or prospective clients. The information is not intended as investment advice and is not a recommendation. Clients seeking information regarding their particular investment needs should contact their financial professional.  

Investment products are distributed by Prudential Investment Management Services LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. PGIM Investments is a registered investment advisor and investment manager to all PGIM investment companies. PGIM Quantitative Solutions, Jennison Associates, and PGIM are registered investment advisors and Prudential Financial companies. PGIM Quantitative Solutions is the primary business name of PGIM Quantitative Solutions LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of PGIM. PGIM Fixed Income and PGIM Real Estate are units of PGIM. 

© 2025 Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities. PGIM Custom Harvest, Jennison Associates, Jennison, PGIM Real Estate, PGIM and the PGIM logo are service marks of Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide.

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© 2025 Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities. Jennison Associates, PGIM Real Estate, PGIM Custom Harvest, PGIM, and the PGIM logo are service marks of Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide.

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