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Bonds Tend to Outshine Stocks After Rate Hike Cycles

Bonds

TendtoOutshineStocksAfterRateHikeCycles

Share

3-YEAR RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS FOLLOWING LAST FED RATE HIKE

Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, S&P. Bonds represented by Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and stocks represented by S&P 500 Index. Average annualized returns three years following the end of each of the past seven Fed rate hike cycles (end dates used: 8/21/1984, 9/4/1987, 2/24/1989, 2/1/1995, 5/16/2000, 6/29/2006, 12/19/2018). Past performance does not guarantee future results. 

CHART HIGHLIGHTS

  • Historically, bonds have generated stronger risk-adjusted returns compared to stocks in the three years following Federal Reserve tightening cycles. 
  • After the past seven tightening cycles, bonds delivered 89% of the return of stocks with only 26% of the volatility with more consistency in their range of outcomes. 

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With the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle near, allocating to bonds now may offer greater returns than waiting until later to invest.

Higher-Duration Assets Tend to Outperform After Tail End of Rate Hike Cycles

Higher-Duration Assets Tend to Outperform After Tail End of Rate Hike Cycles

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With the Fed’s tightening cycle likely ending soon, now may be a good time for investors to extend duration in their portfolios.

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It may be a good time for long-term investors to consider adding REIT exposure to their portfolios.

Footnotes

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade, fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks of large U.S. companies, weighted by market capitalization. 

Investing involves risks. Some investments are riskier than others. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate, and shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than the original cost.  

The views expressed herein are those of PGIM Investments professionals at the time the comments were made and may not be reflective of their current opinions and are subject to change without notice. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. This commentary does not purport to provide any legal, tax, or accounting advice.  

Certain information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date presented; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice.  

Any projections or forecasts presented herein are subject to change without notice. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. Projections and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Accordingly, any projections or forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. Projections or forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.  

© 2023 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI) and Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (S&P). GICS classifications and related GICS information are provided “as is” with no express or implied warranties. Bloomberg®, Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by PGIM Investments. Bloomberg is not affiliated with PGIM Investments, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend PGIM Investments products. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to PGIM Investments products. Frank Russell Company (FRC) is the source and owner of the Russell Index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination, or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is a presentation of the Russell Index data. Frank Russell Company is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in presentations thereof. 

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