2024 Q3 Capital Market Assumptions
Sep 13, 2024
Falling inflation provided room for some developed market central banks to cut rates, while the Fed remained on hold.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has acknowledged modest progress toward bringing inflation back to target but remained in wait-and-see mode. While the Fed left policy rates unchanged throughout the summer, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested the Fed will cut rates only once in 2024, compared to expectations of three rate cuts earlier this year. Meanwhile, falling inflation has provided room for a number of other developed market central banks to cut rates in response to weak economic activity.
For Q3 2024 the Multi-Asset team’s annualized nominal 10-year return forecast for Global Equities is 6.9%, a decrease from the forecast of 7.0% for the second quarter of 2024. The small forecast decrease is primarily attributable to less favorable valuations following a 3.0% advance in Global Equities in the second quarter of 2024. Global sovereign interest rates moved modestly higher in the second quarter as expectations for global central bank rate cuts were pushed further out into 2024 amid a still-growing global economy and inflation that generally remained above central bank targets. The long-run forecast for hedged Global Aggregate Bonds is 4.5%, an increase of 0.5% from last quarter’s forecast. The team’s forecast return for a balanced portfolio of 60% Global Equities unhedged and 40% Global Aggregate Bonds hedged is 6.3% annually over the next 10 years, an increase of 0.1% from the forecast for the second quarter of 2024.
Note: Forecasts may not be achieved and are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results
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