ECB金利据え置き、ディスインフレ進行は終了

欧州チーフ・エコノミストであるKatharine Neissは、欧州中央銀行（ECB）の9月の金融政策会合について見解を述べました。

ECBは政策金利を2%で据え置いたものの、ラガルド総裁はインフレリスクの継続を強調し、過度にハト派的な見通しに対して警戒感を示しました。ECBは2026年まで利上げ・利下げの変更はないと見込んでおり、今後の政策判断は、改善傾向にあるインフレの動向や財政政策の展開を踏まえて行われるとしています。

書き起こしはこちら

So markets were expecting the ECB to keep rates on hold at 2% at their September meeting. And that's exactly what they delivered. It was also an opportunity for the ECB to present updated staff forecasts. On the face of these, they looked a little bit more dovish with the staff revising down their forecast for inflation in 2027 to below the 2% target.

But our view is that President Lagarde's press conference was at the margin quite hawkish, and particularly she emphasized that the disinflationary process was over. And she downplayed the 1.9% in the updated inflation forecast as saying this was a big 1.9%. And moreover, reflected the lagged effects from exchange rates. So the bottom line is, we see this September meeting as confirming our view of no change to ECB policy rates this year.

A small change in 2026 before rates rise again in 2027 as fiscal momentum takes shape.