Third Quarter Market Outlook

“Q2 Showers to Bring More Rain or Flowers?” by Robert Tipp, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, looks at short-term factors that may be supporting the U.S. dollar, the recent divergence in developed market rates, and how conditions might unfold in the spread sectors over the second half of 2018.

In “‘It’s Only a Flesh Wound’—The Global Expansion Continues,” Nathan Sheets, PhD., Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, and the PGIM Fixed Income economics team cover some of the concerns that may have dented investors’ enthusiasm in recent months.

“What Elections in Select EM Countries Are Telling Us,” features an analysis by our macroeconomics and EM portfolio management teams on the recent political results in Turkey and Mexico, while also setting the stage for the upcoming Brazilian elections in October 2018.

Finally, Click Here to Register for Our Upcoming Quarterly Webinar on July 18th, 2018 when Arvind Rajan, PhD., Head of Global and Macro, will join Tipp and Sheets in discussing our investment outlook.

Macro & Market Insights

How Clean is “Clean”? Greece is Aiming for a “Clean Exit” From Its Third Bailout

Jürgen Odenius, Economic Counsellor

In a follow up to the "From Greece to Bondholders with Love" white paper, Jürgen Odenius, Economic Counsellor, explores whether Greece can make a “clean exit” from its third and final bailout and the consequent impact on bondholders.

Long-Term Interest Rates: Perfect Storm, Buying Opportunity, or Both?


Robert Tipp, CFA, Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategist, and Head of Global Bonds

The video above highlights some key takeaways from the following white paper, which addresses questions pertaining to the recent increase in developed market interest rates, including the effects from increased Treasury supply, a rising Federal deficit, normalizing developed market monetary policies, and a weaker U.S. dollar.

What to Watch as the ECB's QE Nears an End


Edward Farley, Managing Director and Head of PGIM Fixed Income's European Corporate Bond Team, discusses recent trends in the ECB's corporate purchases and how they may affect market conditions as the ECB's QE program nears an end. 

Looking Ahead After the U.S.-North Korea Summit

Our experts examine two competing schools of thought following the historic summit and look at how the delicate relationship may evolve.

LIBOR's Borrowed Time?

Gary Horbacz, CFA, Principal, Structured Products Team & Ann Vilasuso, Vice President, Developed Markets Interest Rates Team

PGIM Fixed Income provides a description of the anticipated LIBOR-replacement index, a comparison to LIBOR, and also discusses the deficiencies with the proposed replacement. We also highlight the phased transition plan and the potential implications of the new index on floating rate bonds, portfolio hedges, and benchmarks. Lastly, PGIM Fixed Income outlines some key conclusions regarding the planned replacement, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR).

Loco for Emerging Markets Local Debt and FX

Mariusz Banasiak, CFA, Principal and Head of Foreign Exchange Team, and Tim Whyman, Principal and Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Team

Despite posting solid total returns and generally outperforming most other major credit indices between January 2016 through the end of Q3 2017, investors still question if EM local currency bonds can continue to post relatively strong returns and outperform. This paper outlines the dynamics that led to the underperformance of EM assets from mid-2011 through early 2016, why the asset class is now on solid footing following several years of headwinds, and the attractive relative value opportunities that exist within EM local debt and FX.

What's Driving Global Inflation?

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, George Jiranek, Analyst, Global Macroeconomic Research

Across the major advanced and emerging market economies, inflation has remained remarkably low and stable in the face of diverse economic conditions and shocks. In this paper, we look more deeply at the global inflation process and assess some of the underlying factors that have influenced its recent performance.

Following in Japan’s Footsteps: Have the U.S. and Euro Area Seen a “Lost Decade”?

Nathan Sheets, PhD., Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research

The U.S. and Europe, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, seem to be experiencing many of the same headwinds that Japan did two decades ago. In our comparison of the experiences of these three major economies, we draw some conclusions about what may lie in store for the U.S. and euro area economies.

From Greece to Bondholders with Love

Jürgen Odenius, Economic Counsellor

What's Up with Global Inflation?

Nathan Sheets PhD, Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research

Trade Tensions—Still More Bark Than Bite?

Nathan Sheets, PhD, Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research

Treasury Yields on the Rise


Nathan Sheets, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, discusses rising Treasury yields and the current state of the U.S. economy.

Global Trade Tensions


Nathan Sheets, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, discusses how rising trade tensions are impacting the global macroeconomic backdrop and the bond market. 

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