KEY UPDATES IN THIS QUARTER'S FORECASTS
Relative to 3Q 2025, our long-term outlook for fixed income assets is mixed, with sovereigns somewhat higher and lowerquality credits somewhat lower as a continuing rally in risk assets tightened credit spreads:
- U.S. Aggregate Bonds: Revised to 4.6% from 4.5% last quarter.
- U.S. Long Treasury Bonds: Revised to 5.2% from 5.0% last quarter.
- U.S. High Yield Bonds: Revised to 4.3% from 4.4% last quarter.
Our 10-year forecasts for equity markets declined across regions as last quarter’s 7.7% gain in global equities weighed on valuations:
- U.S. Large-Cap Equities: Revised to 5.3% from 5.8% last quarter.
- International Equities ex-U.S.: Revised to 7.1% from 7.3% last quarter.
- Emerging Markets Equities: Revised to 8.1% from 8.4% last quarter.
Portfolio rebalancing recommendations were limited this quarter.
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Certain information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date presented; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice. The manager has no obligation to update any or all such information, nor do we make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy. Any projections or forecasts presented herein are subject to change without notice. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. Projections and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Accordingly, any projections or forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. Projections or forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, subject to significant revision, and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.
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