Weekly View from the Desk

March 09, 2026

Crude Scenarios and European Effects

    Macro

    • As the volatility in crude oil prices continues with the ongoing conflict in Iran, we see three scenarios pertaining to how energy-related events could develop from here. In our optimistic scenario, the conflict cools and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes within days, rather than weeks. While a void of supply may exist in this scenario, inventories and strategic reserves mostly offset the shortfall, and WTI crude settles into a range of $75-$80 barrel, which incentivizes marginal supply.
    • Our middling scenario sees a continuing conflict where the U.S. Navy enforces open seas lanes through the Strait. Despite ongoing tension, some Gulf Cooperation Council countries are incentivized to resume some shipping, and crude oil production partially resumes. This scenario could result in a supply shortfall of 5 million barrels per day, prompting a “nervous” price range of $90-$120 per barrel.
    • Our pessimistic scenario sees extensive damage to energy infrastructure, and the Strait is closed for weeks, rather than days. A potential increase in WTI to $150 per barrel leads to potential demand destruction and the consequent effects across the global economy.
    • Europe is particularly vulnerable to energy price spikes given that the EU imports 60% of its energy, with Italy, Spain, and Germany importing even higher amounts. However, the scale of the shock pales in comparison to the Ukraine-invasion shock when crude oil surged 70% and gas spiked +1000%. That said, even marginal increases in energy prices further erodes European competitiveness in energy-intensive industries, such as aluminum, cement, chemicals, and steel—much of which is needed for Germany’s planned increase in defense and infrastructure spending. It is estimated that European power cannot regularly exceed €60MWh for the region to remain internationally competitive.

    Developed Market Rates

    • DM interest rates have largely followed the movement in crude oil prices, and most yield complexes rose last week. UK rates encountered the most pressure with increases of 25-30 bps, whereas U.S. rates increased by about 15-20 bps. While bid-offer spreads are wider, liquidity remains adequate—with Europe being marginally weaker—and risk is still being transferred throughout the markets.
    • Inflation expectations are also showing some nuanced movement. The 1-year CPI inflation swap has recently surged, yet forward readings of the 1y1y and 2y1y have exhibited a far more gradual increase, indicating limited concerns about a sustained surge in inflation. 
    • U.S. MBS spreads widened slighly last week on higher volatility and an increase in mortgage supply. Lower coupons (below 5%) widened the most given their likely extension amid higher rates. We remain underweight higher coupon 30-year issues based on refinancing potential, particularly as current prepayment speeds are running at about twice the levels from late 2023.

    IG Corporates

    • U.S. IG corporates held up well despite macro volatility and Middle East-driven risk. The IG Index finished the week ~1 bp tighter, remaining close to recent tights. CDX widened modestly, indicating some defensive positioning (without broad cash weakness). In terms of sectors, energy outperformed on higher commodity prices, and BDCs were volatile, reflecting investor redemptions and structural concerns.
    • Nearly $50B priced across roughly 25 issuers last week. Deals were 4.3x oversubscribed and came with an average concession of 3.6 bps. Issuance was skewed toward the front end of the IG curve, helping to limit spread pressure. Dealers were net sellers of ~$5B of paper, particularly longer maturities, which contributed to a flatter IG curve. This week, we expect $25B-$75B in issuance. There is potential for longer duration deals. However, we note that issuers have generally been quick to stand down when macro conditions soften.
    • Despite supportive technicals (e.g., higher yields, solid earnings, and manageable inventories), valuations look tight given geopolitical and macro risks. While our short-term view is negative, longer-term carry remains attractive.
    • In Europe, EUR IG cash spreads widened by 6 bps. European industries with sensitivities to rates (e.g., property) or energy costs (e.g., chemicals) underperformed last week. On the upside, the demand from yield buyers has maintained an important positive technical.
    • Europe's exposure to geopolitical shocks from the Iran war is primarily through energy markets. Notably, European Natural Gas Futures (e.g., Dutch Title Transfer Facility)-a key indicator of energy pricing-have increased by 111% YTD, outpacing Brent Crude Oil, which is up 70% YTD. The market is now pricing in two ECB rate hikes in 2026, given the upward pressure on inflation and growth expectations.

    Leveraged Finance

    • As the U.S. HY market contends with the most macro volatility since April 2025, the solid technical environment prevails on large cash balances and continued investor willingness to put assets to work. Last week, BBs outperformed Bs and CCCs, all on negative performance. Among sectors, technology, energy, and broadcasting were the top performers, while diversified media, paper & packaging, and consumer products lagged.
    • Retail fund flows were negative for a fourth consecutive week, with a net $182M flowing out of the asset class. Notably, HY mutual funds reported an inflow of $182M—breaking a ten-week streak of outflows, while ETFs reported an outflow of $399M. Light primary market activity continued, with $5.4B across five deals pricing, nearly 75% of which was new money. With all eyes on Iran, the HY new issue calendar is expected to remain light over the short term.
    • While still down for the period, U.S. bank loans stabilized after early-week softness. The percentage of loans trading above par edged higher to around 22%. Retail funds saw a second consecutive weekly outflow of approximately $1.5B. Issuance remained light, with 12 deals totaling $11.1B coming to market, approximately 70% of which was used for repricing or refinancing and nearly 20% for acquisitions.
    • European high yield spreads widened last week, underperforming their U.S. counterparts, mostly driven by energy-intensive and cyclical sectors. Meanwhile, European bank loans outperformed HY, as the asset class is less sensitive to macro volatility and technology issues found a floor. That said, bifurcation in the loan market remains pronounced, with lower-quality lagging considerably.

    Emerging Markets

    • EM hard currency sovereign spreads widened last week across ratings categories, with dispersion playing out on a name, oil-sensitivity, and proximity-to-the-Iran-conflict basis. Outperformers included Lebanon, Venezuela, and select LatAm issuers. Underperformers included Egypt, Turkey, Bahrain, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. GCC countries held up well amid a lack of selling. We continue to believe that EM is a long-term beneficiary of the changes taking place in the global economy. However, the tails are clearly wider so the sizing of relative risks is key.
    • EMFX was under pressure last week with LatAm underperforming. High beta oil importers lagged, with HUF, EGP, ZAR, and CLP declining the most. TRY was an outperformer as CBRT continues to manage the currency. COP, an oil exporter, outperformed. We continue with short USD positioning. We believe the USD is on a weakening trend, unless a prolonged Middle East conflict with elevated oil prices shifts the balance of risks for the global economy towards recession.
    • Within local rates, last week saw some fast money accounts unwinding trades amid low liquidity, helping the index yield rise above 6% for the first time since Q2 2025. Only Colombia and China yields declined. Turkey underperformed. We continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East and are mindful that the weak U.S. labour market data could further weigh on the short-term risk sentiment, which may provide some attractive entry points over the coming weeks.
    • While EM corporate spreads tightened last week, there were significant regional variations. Some spread tightening also related to the U.S. Treasury selloff and the inertia in EM corporate bond prices. Latin America outperformed and Asian spreads held in well despite the region being reliant on crude imports. Bahrain, Saudi, and UAE spreads were under pressure with UAE HY property bonds down 3-10 pts. We have been reviewing the Middle East risk in the portfolios and may reduce some Israel-related risk as these spreads have been holding in very well. We are also looking to cover some UWs in upstream oil & gas issuers.

    Securitized Products

    • CMBS conduit AAA primary and subordinate spreads widened last week with AAAs reaching 82 and A and BBBs reaching the high 100s and mid-400s, respectively. Generic AAA primary and secondary SASB spreads widened, while fixed rates tightened as much as 30 bps. CRE AAA CLOs widened into the 140-145 bps range, while tier-two issuers widened as much as 15 bps. Four deals priced, one SASB, two conduits, and one agency.
    • In RMBS, non-QM spreads were range-bound last week, but tiering widened meaningfully amid elevated macro volatility—the gap between first-tier and second-tier shelves widened to as much as 15 bps from 5 bps. Second-liens and CRTs drifted wider as well. Issuance was heavy, with 15 deals totaling $11.7B pricing, led by seven non-QM's and three second-lien transactions.
    • U.S. CLO spreads softened broadly. Primary spreads widened variably across the capital structure, with mezz tranches impacted the most. Primary vs. secondary AAA spreads were mixed, with primary lagging secondary volatility. European CLOs widened across the capital structure, with mezz tranches widening the most. Issuance reached $8.4B across 19 transactions in the U.S.—including 13 new issues, five resets, and one refi—and €2.3B across five deals in Europe, including four new issues and one reset.
    • ABS spreads widened on broader market volatility—around 5 bps in senior tranches—and 10bps and 15bps among BBBs and BBs, respectively. As expected, primary activity picked up, with $5 billion across 10 deals placing. Notably, some cleared at or tighter than initial price guidance. In the secondary market, light broker-dealer inventories puts them in a good position to arbitrate near-term risk.

    Municipals

    • Last week, tax-exempt munis experienced their first real bout of pain since the Iranian conflict began, with mixed performance vs. Treasuries. Inflationary pressures from the war pushed yields higher, despite a weaker payroll data. M/T yield ratios on 5-year and 10-year maturities ended the week up 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 30-year M/T yield ratio was down -0.9%.
    • The technical backdrop continues to be supportive. In terms of demand, inflows totaled $1.4B last week (~$18.4B YTD), skewed towards IG and longer-duration funds. Elevated supply remains a near-term pressure point. This week, we expect $14B in supply. Notably, Prepaid gas issuance has picked up (~$4B), partly reflecting higher Treasury yields and issuer economics.
    • In the short term, our outlook is negative due to geopolitical uncertainty and supply pressure. However, we remain constructive longer term due to supportive technicals.
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