The ECB’s expected rate cut on Thursday contrasts the Federal Reserve’s decision a day earlier to hold its policy rate steady. The growing divergence between the policy trajectories partially reflects Europe’s subpar growth, clearer signs of labour market easing, and growing confidence that inflation will sustainably converge to the ECB’s 2% target. That said, the ECB did not convey any urgency for the need to cut rates more aggressively from here. Rather, it maintained the narrative that declining rates and rising household real incomes should, eventually, support European growth.
Although rates have come down 125 bps in less than a year and now stand at 2.75%, the ECB’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive. To the extent that there were any developments at the January meeting, it was that the ECB continues to show little sense of urgency to cut rates more quickly. For example, President Lagarde confirmed that there was no discussion by the Governing Council of cutting rates by 50 bps at the January meeting. Instead, the ECB has retained its projection narrative that consumers and firms should eventually support growth. This has been the ECB’s view for many months now, but the more time that passes without a tangible recovery, the less and less likely that narrative crystallises.
Indeed, President Lagarde noted that come March, the Governing Council would have the benefit of more data as well as an updated staff assessment. This suggests that if the hoped for resurgence in consumption and investment fails to materialise, we could see an updated assessment in which below neutral rates would be warranted. For now, we are sticking to our call for three more back-to-back 25 bp rate cuts until June when the ECB potentially pauses its cutting cycle at 2%. The ECB’s staff assessment of neutral real interest rates is an important input into our expectation, and President Lagarde said such an assessment would be published in early February.
Since late last year, European front-end rates have shifted from a very pessimistic assessment of the euro area outlook to one that is less dire. In the fourth quarter of last year, front-end rates rallied, and European risky assets sold off (including EUR/USD, credit, and equities) as investors worried about a weakening economy, rising political risks (notably in France), and the risk of tariffs. For example, the teal colored “Accommodative” line in Figure 1 shows the probability that markets attached to rates falling below neutral was about40% late last year. Since then, those risks have moderated, and that probability has fallen to about 15%.
Front-end rates markets have shifted to a lower probability of deep ECB cuts since November 2024 (%)
Source : PGIM Fixed Income
For now, markets continue to expect a gradual approach to the cutting cycle, and the ECB has now caught up with that “patient” view. But as President Lagarde mentioned, the outlook remains highly uncertain. The ECB and investors will remain attentive to incoming data, the outcome of U.S. economic policy, and geopolitical developments.
The comments, opinions, and estimates contained herein are based on and/or derived from publicly available information from sources that PGIM Fixed Income believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee the accuracy of such sources or information. This outlook, which is for informational purposes only, sets forth our views as of this date. The underlying assumptions and our views are subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.
Source(s) of data (unless otherwise noted): PGIM Fixed Income, as of January 2025.
For Professional Investors only. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results and an investment could lose value. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of capital.
PGIM Fixed Income operates primarily through PGIM, Inc., a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended, and a Prudential Financial, Inc. (“PFI”) company. Registration as a registered investment adviser does not imply a certain level or skill or training. PGIM Fixed Income is headquartered in Newark, New Jersey and also includes the following businesses globally: (i) the public fixed income unit within PGIM Limited, located in London; (ii) PGIM Netherlands B.V., located in Amsterdam; (iii) PGIM Japan Co., Ltd. (“PGIM Japan”), located in Tokyo; (iv) the public fixed income unit within PGIM (Hong Kong) Ltd. located in Hong Kong; and (v) the public fixed income unit within PGIM (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., located in Singapore (“PGIM Singapore”). PFI of the United States is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom or with Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom. Prudential, PGIM, their respective logos, and the Rock symbol are service marks of PFI and its related entities, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide.
These materials are for informational or educational purposes only. The information is not intended as investment advice and is not a recommendation about managing or investing assets. In providing these materials, PGIM is not acting as your fiduciary. PGIM Fixed Income as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Investors seeking information regarding their particular investment needs should contact their own financial professional.
These materials represent the views and opinions of the author(s) regarding the economic conditions, asset classes, securities, issuers or financial instruments referenced herein. Distribution of this information to any person other than the person to whom it was originally delivered and to such person’s advisers is unauthorized, and any reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, or the divulgence of any of the contents hereof, without prior consent of PGIM Fixed Income is prohibited. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources that PGIM Fixed Income believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, PGIM Fixed Income cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice. PGIM Fixed Income has no obligation to update any or all of such information; nor do we make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy.
Any forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fee. These materials are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. PGIM Fixed Income and its affiliates may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed herein, including for proprietary accounts of PGIM Fixed Income or its affiliates.
Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and while generally supported by a government, government agency or private guarantor, there is no assurance that the guarantor will meet its obligations. High yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio. Commodities contain heightened risk, including market, political, regulatory and natural conditions, and may not be suitable for all investors. Diversification does not ensure against loss.
In the United Kingdom, information is issued by PGIM Limited with registered office: Grand Buildings, 1-3 Strand, Trafalgar Square, London, WC2N 5HR.PGIM Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) of the United Kingdom (Firm Reference Number 193418). In the European Economic Area (“EEA”), information is issued by PGIM Netherlands B.V., an entity authorised by the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (“AFM”) in the Netherlands and operating on the basis of a European passport. In certain EEA countries, information is, where permitted, presented by PGIM Limited in reliance of provisions, exemptions or licenses available to PGIM Limited including those available under temporary permission arrangements following the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. These materials are issued by PGIM Limited and/or PGIM Netherlands B.V. to persons who are professional clients as defined under the rules of the FCA and/or to persons who are professional clients as defined in the relevant local implementation of Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II). In Switzerland, information is issued by PGIM Limited, London, through its Representative Office in Zurich with registered office: Kappelergasse 14, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland. PGIM Limited, London, Representative Office in Zurich is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA and these materials are issued to persons who are professional or institutional clients within the meaning of Art.4 para 3 and 4 FinSA in Switzerland. In certain countries in Asia-Pacific, information is presented by PGIM (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., a regulated entity with the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services License to conduct fund management and an exempt financial adviser. In Japan, information is presented by PGIM Japan Co. Ltd., registered investment adviser with the Japanese Financial Services Agency. In South Korea, information is presented by PGIM, Inc., which is licensed to provide discretionary investment management services directly to South Korean investors. In Hong Kong, information is provided by PGIM (Hong Kong) Limited, a regulated entity with the Securities & Futures Commission in Hong Kong to professional investors as defined in Section 1 of Part 1 of Schedule 1 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571). In Australia, this information is presented by PGIM (Australia) Pty Ltd (“PGIM Australia”) for the general information of its “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). PGIM Australia is a representative of PGIM Limited, which is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services License under the Australian Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services. PGIM Limited is exempt by virtue of its regulation by the FCA (Reg: 193418) under the laws of the United Kingdom and the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. The laws of the United Kingdom differ from Australian laws. In Canada, pursuant to the international adviser registration exemption in National Instrument 31-103, PGIM, Inc. is informing you that: (1) PGIM, Inc. is not registered in Canada and is advising you in reliance upon an exemption from the adviser registration requirement under National Instrument 31-103; (2) PGIM, Inc.’s jurisdiction of residence is New Jersey, U.S.A.; (3) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against PGIM, Inc. because it is resident outside of Canada and all or substantially all of its assets may be situated outside of Canada; and (4) the name and address of the agent for service of process of PGIM, Inc. in the applicable Provinces of Canada are as follows: in Québec: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 1000 de La Gauchetière Street West, Suite 900 Montréal, QC H3B 5H4; in British Columbia: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 1200 Waterfront Centre, 200 Burrard Street, Vancouver, BC V7X 1T2; in Ontario: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 22 Adelaide Street West, Suite 3400, Toronto, ON M5H 4E3; in Nova Scotia: Cox & Palmer, Q.C., 1100 Purdy’s Wharf Tower One, 1959 Upper Water Street, P.O. Box 2380 -Stn Central RPO, Halifax, NS B3J 3E5; in Alberta: Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, 530 Third Avenue S.W., Calgary, AB T2P R3.
© 2025 PFI and its related entities.
2025-1108
Collapse Section