A new year may prompt investors to rationalise the intersection of major secular themes—such as a global era of fiscal dominance and a potential productivity boost—with near-term cyclical developments. Our global outlook addresses this relationship by providing regional context to key secular themes as well as their impact on our global scenarios for the coming 12 months.

• Secular forces—fiscal dominance, structural growth, AI‑driven productivity, and public–private market convergence—are shaping a year likely defined by high deficits, evolving interest-rate regimes, and expanding sources of capital across global markets.
• Global macro conditions point to a “Muddle Through” base case across major regions, with U.S. growth supported by AI‑related capex, Europe buoyed by fiscal tailwinds and contained inflation, and China stabilizing through export diversification and accommodative policies.
• Fixed income, now in year four of a bull market, continues to offer compelling all-in yields amid positive yield curves and steady carry dynamics, despite historically tight credit spreads.
• Real estate valuations appear near cyclical lows globally, positioning 2026 as a compelling investment vintage amid supply shortages, rising grade‑A rents, and structural demand from demographics, digitalization, and logistics expansion.
• Fundamental equity remains focused on high-quality companies, leveraging opportunities in AI adoption, healthcare innovation, renewable energy, and structural tailwinds despite 2025’s unpredictability.
• Multi‑asset conditions remain supported by broadening growth, easing policy, and resilient earnings, with equities, EM assets, and commodities benefiting from productivity gains, export diversification, and inflation‑sensitive demand trends.