COP30 in Belém, Brazil, concluded with a compromise agreement that omitted a fossil-fuel phase-out and instead leaned on voluntary reductions, underscoring deep divisions between oil-producing nations and climate advocates keen on stronger action. 

A tacit acknowledgement of 1.5C is out of reach 

The final text agreed at COP 30 implies the 1.5C target will likely be exceeded and set the goal of limiting the extent of that overshoot. 

Whereas previous agreements referenced the "resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C," the new text referenced the need "to limit both the magnitude and the duration of any temperature overshoot." 

Shifting geopolitics undermines top-down political processes 

No direct reference was made to fossil fuel phaseout in the final text, despite a strong push from the Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a ‘roadmap’ to transition away from fossil fuels. Opposition from a handful of large energy exporters led to this being dropped. 

Instead, two voluntary initiatives focused on fossil fuel transition were introduced, aiming to streamline several hundred overlapping and disparate pledges and initiatives and provide a forum to collaborate on implementation. The roadmap itself will be revisited at a dedicated conference hosted by Colombia in April 2026 and has the support of over eighty countries.

Together with progress on methane emissions reduction at a pre-COP event, this points to a gradual weakening of the top-down multilateral model of the COP process and a move towards targeted coalitions of states and non-state actors on areas of overlapping interest. The goal to tripling renewable capacity by 2030 for example, agreed by 130 countries at COP28, remains in reach given the surge in  capacity additions since 2023. 

The absence of the USA from the conference, and China’s heavy focus on trade concerns linked to climate policy, meant that the limited outcomes – and in some cases, backtracking – of COP30 reflected the geopolitical realities of 2025. 

Funding commitments fall short for tackling deforestation

Despite being hailed by Brazil as a highlight of the conference, the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund saw only $6.7 billion of commitments from governments, far short of its $25bn target. 

The complexity of the fund structure and practical questions around its operation may be holding back more funding commitments, but wider fiscal challenges facing many governments are likely to be a bigger barrier. 

Governments and companies have made repeated pledges to tackle deforestation, yet progress has consistently fallen short. The last major push came at COP26 in Glasgow, when world leaders and financial institutions committed to achieving zero deforestation by 2030.

Buzzwords for Investors: Country decarbonisation plans 

COP30 coincided with a wave of 2035 emissions reduction plans, with 122 countries representing nearly 80% of emissions updating their Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. However, media coverage focused on the  lack of ambition in the new targets - which remain insufficient to meet even the 2C warming goal of the Paris Agreement.

One area of progress is the shift from a narrow focus on emissions reduction and energy systems, to economy-wide targets that align reduction pathways with  country development priorities and incorporate mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity-building, and loss & damage considerations. 

Decarbonisation policy actions that clearly advance development priorities are more likely to endure throughout policy cycles, ensure implementation, and play an important signalling role to the market on future growth priorities. The embrace of economy-wide NDCs by emerging and less developed countries was noteworthy in this regard, even if they fell far short of required reductions.  

Adaptation in focus 

This year’s COP continued the trend of increasing focus on adaptation, with a pledge to triple adaptation financing for developing countries by 2035, although the history of similar pledges at previous COPs suggests this goal is likely to be missed. 

Elsewhere, the publication of a voluntary list of 59 indicators to measure adaptation progress proved contentious, with African Group negotiators viewing a number of these as unworkable in the absence of additional funding commitments, raising concerns around market access if governments underperform or fail to report these indicators. 

A working group is being established to refine these indicators but concerns around capital flight from countries that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change are likely to grow. The creation of a new forum to support National Adaptation Plans announced at COP30 will focus heavily on capacity-building and implementation.