Bonds Appear Poised to Outperform Stocks

AVERAGE RETURNS AFTER DIFFERENT VALUATION AND YIELD REGIMES

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Source: PGIM Investments using data from Bloomberg as 4/30/2025. Data shows average annualized 10-year returns after starting P/E levels shown for stocks and starting yield ranges shown for bonds. S&P 500 Index (Stocks), Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Bonds). Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Source: PGIM Investments using data from Bloomberg as 4/30/2025. Data shows average annualized 10-year returns after starting P/E levels shown for stocks and starting yield ranges shown for bonds. S&P 500 Index (Stocks), Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Bonds). Past performance does not guarantee future results.

CHART HIGHLIGHTS

  • Stocks are currently trading near historic highs, while bond yields have reached levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis.
  • Bonds outpaced stocks in the 10 years following past periods when equity price-to-earnings ratios topped 23x and bond yield-to-worst measures fell in the 4%-6% range.

Key Takeaway

Amid elevated stock valuations, now may be an opportune time to increase allocations to bonds.

Footnotes

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade, fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks of large U.S. companies, weighted by market capitalization. An investment cannot be made directly in an index and an index does not have fees. All indexes are unmanaged.

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