What to Expect When Expecting a Recession: A CIO’s guide to interpreting the probability of recession
A guide for CIOs to help them assess and interpret recession probability models, and explore several related issues that they should consider.
Recession Probability Evaluation Module
Evaluate US recession probability estimates and model assumptions to better understand what is driving the probability of recession.
- Explore a variety of recession probability estimates
- Graph the probability of a current or a future US recession over time
- Toggle between market-based, macro-based, and combined recession signals
Stock-Bond Correlation Module
Explore the ongoing evolution of developed market (DM) stock-bond correlations, their macroeconomic drivers, and how correlation impacts optimal portfolio construction.
- Monitor in real time stock-bond correlations in six major DMs
- Examine how key macroeconomic drivers are influencing DM stock-bond correlations
- Determine how assumed stock-bond correlation and investor preferences impact optimal portfolio construction and expected performance
Real Asset Sensitivity Analysis (RASA) Module
Present asset-level exposures to key macroeconomic and market measures, allowing investors to evaluate their real assets allocation - both to the asset class itself and to specific assets within the asset class.
- Determine if a chosen benchmark is aligned with investor objectives
- Compare investors' real assets portfolio to peer portfolios
- Conduct "what-if" analysis to fine tune allocation within the real asset portfolio
Overview Video
Explore the key features of the Recession Probability Evaluation Module, Stock-Bond Correlation Module and RASA Sensitivity Module to better aid portfolio construction. Request access below or explore the modules above to learn more.
Related Content
Portfolio Implications of a Positive Stock-Bond Correlation World
While simultaneous large declines in stock and bond prices are likely temporary, a positive stock-bond correlation regime may persist.
Stock-Bond Correlation: A Global Perspective
Stock-bond correlations are highly synchronized. A shift to positive correlation, driven by US policy settings, would likely be widespread.
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