Three Focal Points for the U.S.-China Relationship
This paper covers three focal points—investment, technology, and national security—that will likely define the U.S.-China relationship in the years to come.
Gerwin Bell, PhD, is a Principal, Lead Economist for Asia on the Global Macroeconomic Research team at PGIM Fixed Income. Mr. Bell joined the Firm in 2012 from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As Mission Chief in the IMF’s European Department, Mr. Bell was responsible for a number of developed and emerging countries and negotiated several IMF loan programs. Previously, he was instrumental in shaping IMF policy on official and private sector debt restructuring, and also oversaw nation-building efforts in the Balkans. Prior to the IMF, Mr. Bell taught at U.S. and German universities. Mr. Bell has authored numerous country and policy publications for the IMF, as well as scholarly articles in peer-reviewed journals. He received Masters degrees in Economics from Trier University in Germany and Yale University and holds a PhD in Economics from Trier University.
India may be well placed to replicate China's rise over the last three decades but the chance of success rests on India being able to drastically increase domestic savings and economy-wide productivity. The current situation, with China losing cost competitiveness and being in the crosshairs of a trade conflict, offers an opening for India. It is now important for India to focus on essential reforms and its vision to shift to an investment- and export-led growth model.
The opening of China's onshore bond market marks a historic juncture. Its growth in recent years not only made it the world's third largest bond market, but one that has also outperformed most other markets in 2018 amid rapidly evolving regulation as it moves closer to securing inclusion into major bond market indices. Given that the market has yet to become a focal point for global investors, Gerwin Bell, PhD. Lead Economist, Asia, Global Macroeconomic Research Team, and Johnny Mak, Portfolio Manager, EMD Team highlight key developments, relevant technical specifics, and the intertwined macroeconomic and regulatory idiosyncrasies that investors need to be cognizant of to fully realize the potential of this new investment opportunity.
All information as of December 31, 2020. For purposes of the biographies, the “Firm” is defined as Prudential Financial, Inc. ("PFI"). All PGIM and Prudential named entities are subsidiaries or affiliates of PFI. PFI of the United States is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom or with Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc, incorporated in the United Kingdom.