Every recession has its unique set of drivers and circumstances, but the transmission of those factors through the economy has exhibited notable similarities. Applying these insights to the current expansion, we have found the probability of recession in the United States to be remarkably low. The ongoing global expansion shares many features with the U.S. cycle. The similarities strike us as extensive and bear the imprint of a common global cycle. In this environment, investors’ attention will need to increasingly shift from macro issues to more micro issues. As such, we expect that debates regarding the appropriateness of asset prices will be increasingly front and center in the year ahead.