Italy: Europe’s “Sleeping Beauty”
Following the recent election of a centre-right Italian government, a key question for investors is whether this could trigger another round of market stress in Italy that threatens a euro area break-up. Our analysis takes a step back to consider Italy’s economic potential, current vulnerabilities, and exposure to market stress. Italy’s legacy of high government debt means that risks will remain live for many years to come. That said, a robust post-pandemic recovery coupled with substantial support programmes from the European Union and European Central Bank should translate into greater resilience in financial markets barring any further downside shocks to the region. The key deliverable for Italy now is to grow over the medium term.