Changing The Narrative
Several key factors give us conviction that European real estate markets are approaching a turning point:
- Looser monetary conditions. As a capital-intensive industry, a reduction in borrowing costs via lower interest rates is set to ease the strain on investors.
- Historical precedent. In real terms, values have started to turn a corner – the magnitude and timing are consistent with past cycles and point to a stabilization this year and return to growth in 2025.
- The repricing is nearly done. Based on our modeling, most of the effect of past interest rate increases has now been factored in. Current yields are either in or very close to our target acquisition range.
- Low supply, solid occupier markets. Despite recession risks, occupier strains have been limited by ongoing jobs growth and low development activity. Rental growth remains resilient.
2024 Global Outlook
With monetary conditions easing and investment liquidity improving in 2024, the global real estate market is reaching a turning point.
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